Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.02 – $.05 closing near session lows however once again spreads did firm. July-24 held support above the May 1st low at $4.43 ¾. Today’s high challenged the 50 and 100 MA resistance near $4.53. New 4 week low for Dec-24 however also held the May low at $4.66. Widespread 1-3” rains are expected across much of the nation’s midsection over the next 5 days. Although the precip. will build subsoil reserves it will also serve to slow remaining corn plantings. Exports at 39 mil. bu. (32 mil. – 23/24 MY, 7 – 24/25) were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.972 bil. are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 29%. Current commitments represent 92% of the USDA forecast just below the historical average of 93%. Shipments are up 24%. The most noted buyer last week was Mexico with 15 mil. bu. of old crop and 7 mil. new crop. New crop commitments at only 110 mil. bu. are the lowest since 102 mil. in 2019. IMO prices are bracing for historically high crop ratings next Monday. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 46.5 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 53 mmt. Harvest continues to plot along at only 30% complete, up 2% for the week.
SOYBEANS
With the exception of spot July-24 meal the soybean complex has turned lower across the board. For the week beans and meal were moderately lower while oil rebounded. Outside day down for July-24 beans while challenging MA support just above $12. Support for Nov-24 bean is at the 100 day MA at $11.81. Inside trade for July-24 meal. New high for the week in July-24 oil, however stopped short of the 100 day MA resistance at 46.63 before backing up. While the 8-14 day forecast shows below normal temperatures over a wide portion of the Midwest, heat that is building along the west coast is showing signs of shifting into the plain states by mid-June. No change in SA with mostly dry conditions the next week to 10 days. Exports at 12 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are down 15% from YA in line with the USDA. Commitments represent 93% of the USDA forecast, below the historical average of 98%. Shipments are down 18%. China/unknown were net buyers of 8 mil. bu. of old crop however still no new crop commitments to China. Total new crop commitments at only 35 mil. are the lowest in well over a decade. Soybean meal sales were in line with expectations with YTD commitments up 10% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. Soybean oil were in line with expectations with YTD commitments up 12%, vs. the USDA forecast of down 7%. Combined biodiesel and RD jumped 6.7% to 414 mil. gallons in March, a 3 month high. Oddly enough capacity actually slipped 42 mil. gallons to just below 5.8 bil. annually. Soybean oil usage for biofuel production in Mch-24 rebounded 15.5% to 1.026 bil. lbs. and was up 8% vs. Mch-23. In the first 6 months of the 23/24 MY usage has reached 6.139 bil. lbs. up 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4%. Census crush for April due out after Monday’s close.
WHEAT
Prices closed mixed in 2 sided trade across all 3 classes with neither the bulls or bears able to gain an edge. Chicago and MGEX were both down $.02 – $.03, while KC was within a few cents of unchanged. Inside day for Chicago July-24. Southern Russia and surrounding areas remain in a dryer than normal pattern however a shift to extreme heat is not expected for at least the next few weeks. Russian Deputy PM said the Govt. expects grain exports to reach 70 mmt in 2024, including 53 mmt of wheat. They also kept their grain production forecast steady at 132 mmt, including 85 mmt of wheat. Most private est. in recent weeks have trended down to 78 – 80 mmt. Look for the USDA to lower their 88 mmt forecast in the June 12th WASDE. Russia also lowered their export tax on wheat 6.7% to 2,778.10 roubles/mt for the period ending June 11th. Exports at 12 mil. bu. were below expectations. Old crop commitments at 694 mil. are up 1% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 5%. Commitments represent 96% of the USDA forecast, in line with the historical average. Shipments are up 2%.
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