Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.06 lower in 2-sided trade. Spreads were weaker. July-26 matched its March high at $4.87 ½ before turning lower. Dec-26 jumped out to a fresh 2 ½ year high before backing up. Both July and Dec. held at or above yesterday’s low. Plantings advanced 13% to 38% matching the YA pace and just ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 34%. The Northern Midwest remains the only region lagging their historical average. Emergence at 13% is above the YA pace of 10% and the 5-year Ave. of 9%. Huge speculative buying yesterday likely took the MM long position up to nearly 300k contracts. O.I. surged 37k contracts. Mch-26 census exports at 316 mil. bu. was up 19% from Feb-26 and up 9% YOY. Shipments were 10 mil. above the implied inspections. YTD exports at 1.943 bil. are up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%.
SOYBEANS
Prices are mixed with beans down $.07-$.12, meal was steady to $2 lower while oil was 35-40 higher. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. Despite the pullback, both July-26 and Nov-26 held within yesterday’s range. July-26 meal continues to consolidate near its 50-day MA. Next resistance for spot oil is the Nov-22 high at 78.64. Spot board crush margins surge $.20 to a new modern-day record at $3.76 ½ bu. while bean oil PV held at its all-time high at 54.9%. With D4 RIN’s valued at just over $2, S&P Global calculates RD breakeven price for soybean oil at nearly $.90 lb., still below current price levels. The MM record long position in bean oil likely surpassed 200k contracts in today’s trade. Energy prices were lower in 2-sided trade as markets monitor developments in the Middle East. While the US/Iran ceasefire remains fragile, US Defense Sec. Hegseth maintains the ceasefire “certainly holds” while the lane through the Straits of Hormuz is clear. Plantings remain at a record pace at 33%, above the 28% pace from YA and 5-year Ave. of 23%. Rain this week in the Delta region will slow the remaining plantings. As of Sunday, MS has reached 77% vs. 57% Ave., LA at 84% vs. 58% Ave. and AR at 73% vs. 47% Ave. Emergence has reached 13% vs. only 6% YA and 5-year Ave. of 5%. In advance of the Trump/Xi summit in Beijing in just over a week, Treasury Sec. Bessent yesterday urged China to persuade Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Mch-26 census exports at 145 mil. bu. were down 6% from Feb-26 however up 13% YOY. Cumulative exports at 1.137 bil. are down 26% YOY, vs. the USDA forecast of down 18%. To reach the current USDA export forecast of 1.540 bil. bu. sales will need to reach 403 mil. April through August, vs. 342 mil. YA. EU bean imports for the 25/26 MY as of May 3rd at 11.1 mmt are down 8%. Meal imports at 14.96 mmt are down 6.5%.
WHEAT
Prices recovered late in both KC and MIAX finishing $.03-$.05 lower while CGO was down $11-$.13. CGO July-26 was down $.13 ¼ at $6.27 ¾, KC July-26 was $.04 ½ lower at $6.90 while MIAX July-26 was down $.03 at $6.96. Winter wheat ratings increased 1% to 31% G/E, however there was a 2% increase in Poor/VP to 37%. Overall ratings remain below their historical average and the lowest in 3 years. Ratings in KS fell another 1% to only 22% G/E while poor/VP held rose 3% to 44%. I’d expect a higher-than-normal level of abandonment in KS this year. Ratings fell 8% in WA and 6% in NE. Conditions jumped 8% in IL and MO. Nationally 49% of the crop is headed, vs. 37% YA and 5-year Ave. of 32%. In KS 70% of the crop was headed. Current conditions suggest WW production at 1.187 bil. bu. with an average yield of 49.6 bpa. Spring wheat plantings at 32% trail the YA pace of 42% and 5-year Ave. of 35%. Mch-26 census exports at 67 mil. bu. were down 6% from Feb-26 however up 1% YOY. YTD sales at 766 mil. bu. is up 16.7% YOY, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%.
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