Written Commentary
CORN
Prices plunged $.07-$.15 today led by old crop closing near session lows. Support for July-25 is at the March low just above $4.50. Dec-25 matched LW’s low at $4.42 ¼. Favorable weather combined with lower energy prices weighed on agricultural commodities. Mostly dry across WC areas of Brazil as we shift into their drier season. Subsoil moisture levels are more than adequate for now to maintain strong yield potential for their 2nd crop corn. Export inspections at 63 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and well above the 44 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 2.550 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.674 bil. are up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. Largest takers were Mexico – 19 mil., and Japan – 17 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans off $.08-$.12, meal was $1.50 lower while oil was down 65-70 points. Spreads weakened in beans and oil while steady in meal. July-25 beans remain stuck in a $10.40-$10.65 range. July-25 meal continues to consolidate just below $300 ton. July oil slipped to a 2 week low overnight before recovering. Spot board crush margins recovered a few cents to $1.31 bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 45.5%. Rainfall totals between 1-3” will be common across the deep south this week. Mostly dry across the northern 2/3rds of the Midwest with the exception of some scattered showers in the eastern Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures across much of the nation’s midsection will enable US row crop plantings to move along at a rapid pace this week. Wetter conditions this week across Argentina will slow harvest activities. No fresh tariff headlines with China returning from their Spring Festival holiday tomorrow. Export inspections at 12 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and a MY low however above the 4 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.597 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02 lower in MGEX to $.08-$.12 lower in KC and CGO. Spreads are mostly lower. KC and CGO futures gave back nearly all of Friday’s rally. Early strength in July-25 MGEX stopped just shy of its 100 day MA resistance at $6.17 ¾. A Russian grain terminal at the port of Novorossiisk was damaged by a Ukraine missile strike this weekend. Export inspections at 11 mil. bu. were below expectations and below the 20 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 726 mil. are up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Last week MM’s sold nearly 31.5k contracts of CGO wheat, a record amount for a week, extending their short position to 121,415 contracts, the largest since June-23. They also sold 10,645 contracts of KC futures extending their short position to a record large at just over 67k contracts. Across the 3 classes combined, MM’s are net short a record 207,798 contracts. IKAR raised their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast 1.3 mmt to 83.8 mmt vs. 81.6 mmt YA.
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