Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.05 higher today while spreads also firmed. Dec-24/Mch-25 has reached a 5 month high at $.10 ¼. Next resistance for Dec-24 is the Nov-24 high at $4.34 ¾. Export inspections at 32 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 357 mil. are up 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 1.4%. Mexico was the only noted buyer with nearly 16 mil. bu. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 88k contracts LW extending their long position to 109,989 contracts, the largest since Feb-23. In the past 4 weeks MM’s have bought 196,977 contracts of corn, roughly 985 mil. bu. This was nearly offset by merchant/producer selling of 188k contracts, or 940 mil. bu. Big shift in corn ownership in the past month from the producer to the speculative trader. Argentina’s first corn crop plantings have reached 86%, up from 72% LW and 80% YA. Chinese corn imports in Oct-24 at only 250k mt were down 88% from Oct-23. YTD imports at just over 13 mmt are down 30% YOY.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex turned higher across the board with beans up $.08-$.11, meal was steady to $1.50 higher, while oil was up 15-20. Jan-25 beans were able to close back above the $10 bu. level with next resistance at the 50 day MA at $10.22 ¼. Longer term support for Dec-24 meal is at $280 ton, the low from Aug-2020. Dec-24 oil held support above LW’s low at 44.33 setting up today’s recovery. Malaysian palm oil prices were down over 3.5% overnight, weighing on bean oil values in early trade. China’s announcement on Friday to eliminate their 13% tax rebate on UCO exports threatens their demand for palm oil imports. Spot board crush margins fell another $.08 to $1.29 ½ bu. carving out a fresh 2 month low. Bean oil PV held steady at 43.9%. Dry areas in Central Argentina should make good planting progress this week ahead of forecasted rains next week. Conditions across Brazil remain favorable. The USDA announced the sales of 261k mt (9.5 mil. bu.) of beans to Mexico, 135k mt of meal to the Philippines, and 30k mt of bean oil to India. Export inspections at 76 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Last week’s inspections were revised up 3 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 642 mil. up 9% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. China took 51 mil. bu. Last week MM’s were buyers of nearly 16k soybeans, just over 11k oil while sellers of 19,500 contracts of meal. MM’s long position in BO had swelled to over 75K contracts, the largest since Dec-23. AgRural reports Brazilian soybean plantings have reached 80%, up from 67% LW however well above YA and the 5-year Ave.
WHEAT
Prices were $.11-$.15 higher across all 3 classes today as markets injected additional “War Premium” due to increased tensions in the Black Sea region. Not much resistance until the 100 day MA at $5.71 for Dec-24 Chicago. Similar story for KC and MGEX with resistance at $5.77 and $6.14 respectively. Good rains fell across the US southern plains in the past 24 hours. This system will slide north and east the next few days bringing beneficial moisture across much of the central Midwest. Heaviest amounts to favor KS, E NE, IA and the northern Great Lakes region. Export inspections at 7 mil. bu. were a MY low, below expectations and well below the 15 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 379 mil. are still up 31% from YA, vs. the USDA of up 17%. Last week MM’s sold just over 14,500 contracts of Chicago wheat, 11k in KC and just over 5k in MGEX. Their combined short position in wheat jumped to nearly 93k contracts, the largest in 2 months.
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