Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower as speculative traders lightened up on their long holdings. Early strength in the spreads enabled Dec-24/Mch-25 to trade into $.07 ¼ , a 17 month high. Spreads finished little changed on the day. Dec-24 tested support at its 50 day MA at $4.18 ½ before recovering. Late yesterday President elect Trump announced on day 1 of his 2nd term he will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports (including UCO) and a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, at least until they help stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants into the US. Mexico has been the largest importer of US corn the past 3 marketing years. Commitments for the 24/25 MY at 508 mil. bu. as of last Thursday’s report, represent 41% of the total commitments to date. Historically at this point in the MY Mexico’s commitments have ranged between 47-61% of their final US imports. If this year’s commitments represent the high of that range, their 24/25 imports from the US will fall slightly below their 23/24 imports at 856 mil. bu. EU imports for the 24/25 MY as of Nov. 24th have reached 7.94 mmt, up 6.7% from YA. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production between 322-328 mil. gallons, vs. the record production of 327 mil. gallons 2 weeks ago and 326 mil. from last week.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed. Beans finished within $.02 of unchanged, meal was $4-$6 lower while oil was up a 130 points. Bean and meal spreads weakened, while oil spreads firmed slightly. Jan-25 beans once again held support above $9.75. Support for Dec-24 meal is at its contracts low at $285.30, with longer term support near $280. Dec-24 oil tested its 100 day MA resistance at 42.62. Spot board crush margins jumped $.05 to $1.18 ½ bu. while bean oil PV surged to 42.5%. Forecasts remain very favorable for South America with a good mix of rain and sunshine thru the first week of December. Some areas in Southern Brazil may experience too much rain in the short term. World Weather does not believe a full blown La Nina pattern will develop over the next few months, consistent with what the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been stating for months. EU soybean imports for the 24/25 MY as of Nov. 24th have reached 4.95 mmt, up 7% from YA. Meal imports at 7.4 mmt are up 33% YOY. The EIA will provide their monthly update on biofuel capacity, production and feedstock usage data on Friday.
WHEAT
Prices firmed up late closing $.02-$.05 higher across all 3 classes. Inside trade for spot Dec-24 Chicago. US winter wheat plantings advanced 3% to 97% matching YA and just behind the 5-year Ave. of 98%. Emergence has reached 89% matching the 5-year Ave. 55% of the crop is rated G/E, up 6% from last week and well above expectations for a 2% increase. Recent rains across winter wheat areas has driven ratings to their highest level in 6 years. 12% of the crop is poor or very poor, down from 15% LW and YA. Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin milling wheat for Jan-25 delivery paying $268.90/mt CF. Algeria has also reportedly bought an undisclosed amount of milling wheat from the Black Sea region around $267/mt CF. Their tender was for 50k mt. Tunisia is seeking 100k mt of durum and soft milling wheat in tenders that expire tomorrow. EU Soft wheat exports as of Nov. 24th have reached 9.15 mmt, down 30% from YA. A cooler dryer outlook across the US plain states will help push this year’s winter crop towards dormancy.
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