Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher today as spreads continue to firm. Dec-24 stalled just below yesterday’s high at $4.20. With election results hanging in the balance and USDA data on Friday, price movement in the agricultural space was limited. We could see increased volatility overnight if a winner emerges in the race for President. The USDA announced the sale of 124k mt (5 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer. Harvest advanced 10% to 91% complete vs. 78% from YA and the 5-year Ave. of 75%. Still the fastest harvest pace since 2012. US census exports from Sept-24 at 168 mil. bu. were the highest for month in 6 years and up 35% from YA. By my calculations exports were also 16 mil. above inspection data. EU 24/25 corn imports as of Nov. 3rd have reached 6.65 mmt, up 8% from YA. EIA data tomorrow is expected to show ethanol production LW ranged from 1,070-1,086 tbd, vs. 1,082 tbd pace the previous week.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.02-$.06, meal was steady to $1 higher, while oil was down 50-60. Beans spreads surged while meal and oil spreads were slightly lower. Board crush margins got crushed down $.13 to $1.60 while bean oil PV slipped just under 43%. An inside trading session for Jan-25 beans, following yesterday’s inside trade. Resistance is at Friday’s high at $10.08 ¾. Inside day for Dec-24 meal as it closed just below $300 per ton. For now Dec-24 oil has rejected trade over $.46 lb. Global forecasts generally remain crop friendly. Recent rains will help alleviate the spike in drought readings across the US midsection. In Brazil, widespread rains fell across the central growing regions in the past 24 hours with heaviest totals between 2-3” being felt in central Goias and Mato Grosso. Heavy rains favored northern growing areas of Argentina the past 24 hours. A good mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to 10 days will continue to support favorable crop development in SA. Harvest advanced 5% to 94% complete, vs. 89% YA and 5-year Ave. of 85%. The pace to harvest remains the fastest in 7 years. US census exports from Sept-24 at 109 mil. bu. were the highest for Sept. in 4 years and up 21% from YA. EU 24/25 soybean imports as of Nov. 3rd at 4.03 mmt are up 2% from YA. Soybean meal imports at 5.92 mmt are up 10% from YA.
WHEAT
Prices were $.03-$.06 higher across all 3 classes today. The Dec-24 contracts from all 3 classes have 50/100 day MA resistance just above today’s highs. Areas in the far WCB and plains that haven’t yet seen widespread moisture will likely see 1-3” of accumulation by the end of the weekend. Winter wheat plantings advanced 7% to 87% complete vs. 88% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 89%. Emergence has reached 66% vs. YA and the 5-year Ave. at 72% and 71% respectively. 41% of the crop is rated G/E, up 3% from last week and in line with expectations. 23% of the crop is still rated poor or very poor, vs. 17% YA. Russia Ag. Minister told state media their countries grain harvest would be down 20-22 mmt due to inclimate weather. Total grain harvest is likely to reach only 130 mmt, down from earlier projections of 150 mmt. Census exports from Sept-24 at 91 mil. bu. were steady with Aug-24 however up 32.5% from Sept-23. Late last evening results from Egypt’s GASC recent wheat purchase were announced. They bought 290k mt of wheat from Black Sea origin at roughly $275/mt CF. EU 24/25 soft wheat exports as of Nov. 3rd at 7.76 mmt are down 31.5% from YA.
All charts provided by QST.
>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
