Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Ag Market View for Nov 8.24

Price action following the USDA data was a bit disappointing, particularly for soybeans.  Jan-25 beans were not able to hold trade near its 100 day MA resistance at $10.41.  Dec-24 oil did trade to a 7 month high above $.49 lb., however wasn’t able to hold that strength into the close as spreads weakened.  Dec-24 corn rejected trade over its Oct-24 high at $4.34 ¼.  Biggest surprise to me in today’s data was the decision by the USDA to hold corn demand unchanged despite the huge export commitments to date.  I’d look for higher usage and lower stocks in subsequent reports.  Also surprising to see soybean crush lowered and no changes to the soybean oil usage figures despite the massive export sales to date.  The favorable weather outlook for South America is the primary reason for the pullback from the highs made shortly after the release of today’s data.  Wheat will likely continue to be a follower.  Without corn tugging it higher wheat prices pulled back to the midpoint or lower end of their recent ranges for all 3 classes.     

CORN

  • Production cut 60 mil. bu. to 15.143 bil.  slightly below expectations.  Yield still a record at 183.1 bpa, down from 183.8 last month
  • Ending stocks at 1.938 bil. bu. in line with expectations.  No changes to usage despite strong demand so far
  • Global stocks at 304 mmt slightly below expectations.  No changes to South American production

SOYBEANS

  • Production cut 121 mil. bu. to 4.461 bil. almost 100 mil. bu. below expectations.  Yields cut to 51.7 bpa, down from 53.1 last month.
  • Ending stocks at 470 mil. bu. roughly 60 mil. bu. below expectations.  Usage cut 41 mil. bu. with exports down 25 mil., crush down 15 mil.
  • Global stocks at just under 132 mmt were below the range of guesses.  No changes to SA production
  • Crush margins set back $.01 to $1.71 ¼ with bean oil PV new 15 month high at 45.2%.

WHEAT

  • Ending stocks at 815 mil. bu. slightly above the 812 mil. last month, in line with expectations
  • Global stocks steady at 257.6 mmt, slightly above expectations
  • Kazakhstan production rose 2 mmt to 18 mmt however their exports cut .5 mmt.

All charts provided by The Hightower Report

 

>>See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started