Ag Market View for Nov 9.22
Soybeans and soyoil ended higher. Soymeal ended lower. USDA raised US 2022 soybean crop 30 mil bu and crush 10. Net result was a 20 mil bu increase in carryout to 220. USDA also increased World soybean end stocks to 102.1 mmt. USDA left Brazil soybean crop at 152.0 mmr vs 127.9 ly. USDA dropped Argentina soybean crop to 49.5 from 51.0 and vs 44.0 last year. USDA left China soybean imports at 98.0 mmt despite concern over their slowing economy. SA weather looks to improve over the next 10 days. In their baseline projection USDA may have understated next 10 years of soyoil use for renewable fuel. B100 is an alternative for diesel. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600-1,200 mt vs 830.
Corn futures ended lower. USDA raised US 2022 corn crop 43 mil bu and feed/residual 25. Net result was a 10 mil bu increase in carryout to 1,182. Some were surprised they did not drop US corn exports 150 mil bu. Guess they may wait another 30 days to see is Ukraine export corridor is extended. Turkey wants a 12 month extension. This would be negative corn futures. USDA EST us 2022/23 total supply near 15,357 mil bu vs 16,333 ly. Feed and residual is 5,300 vs 5,717 ly. Ethanol 5,275 vs 5,326 ly and exports 2,150vs 2,471 ly. Weekly ethanol production was up from last week but still below last year. USDA baseline 10 year projection showed little increase in annual ethanol production. Stocks were down from last week but still above last year. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 300-650 mt vs 372 last week. Mexico remains the largest buyer. Mexico President said in 2023 they will not import GMO corn. Crude prices dropped after US supply rose. Most of the increase was from government selling more reserves. US SOR are at 38 year lows.
Talk that UN/NATO may agree to drop sanction on one large Russian Bank could open the door for more Russia grain and fertilizer exports. This is negative wheat. USDA left Russia wheat crop at 91.0 mmt. US HRW crop areas are still dry. Argentina could get some needed rain next week. E EU and Black Sea are mostly dry. W Australia wheat yields are better than expected. E Australia wheat quality is still in question. More optimize about Black Sea corridor being extended past Nov 19 is weighing on futures. Cash basis remains firm with potential RR strike just days away and barge freight remains firm with low water levels.
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