Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher in 2 sided trade. Spreads weakened in day 2 of the Goldman roll. Dec-25 rejected trade into new lows for the month with near term resistance at the October high of $4.37. Support below the market is at the 100 day MA at $4.19 ¼. Export inspections at 56 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations however in line with the 57 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 540 mil. are up 66% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 14 mil. while Korea, Japan and Taiwan each bought between 5 – 7 mil. bu. Wire services are reporting the Ave. estimate for US harvest is 92% vs. the 5-year Ave. of 89% and the 94% pace from YA. AgRural places Brazil’s 1st crop corn plantings at 72% as of late last week, up from 60% the previous week. Safras & Mercado raised their 25/26 Brazilian production forecast 1.1 mmt to 143.6 mmt, well above the USDA est. from September at only 131 mmt. China’s Ag. Ministry raised their countries 2025 production forecast to 300 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 295 mmt, while also lowering their 25/26 corn import forecast 40% to only 6 mmt. Of course no CFTC update from this past Friday however after buying roughly 2k contracts on Friday we’d estimate the MM short position is roughly 70k contracts.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.12-$.14, meal was $2-$3 higher while bean oil surged 90 points. Bean spreads were steady to weaker while product spreads were steady to firmer. Jan-26 beans gapped slightly higher overnight while holding below LW’s high at $11.37. Dec-25 meal held near the midpoint of LW’s range of roughly $310-$325. Dec-25 oil traded to a fresh 2 week high while closing above its 50 MA resistance. Optimism the Fed. Govt. shutdown may end soon fueled a “risk on” sentiment that has spilled over into the agricultural space. Spot board crush margins slipped $.05 to $1.37 ½ bu. with bean oil PV improving to 44.2%. Soybean inspections at 40 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations however above the 32 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 327 mil. are down 42% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Pakistan was the biggest taker at nearly 7 mil. bu. China has still not publicly acknowledged they would buy 12 mmt of US soybeans by the end of this year, nor 25 mmt the each of the next 3 MY’s that the Trump Admin. has been touting. They have shown no recent interest in buying US soybeans as FOB offers in Brazil remain below the US even before accounting for the 10% tariff differential which favors Brazilian imports. China’s Ag. Ministry lowered their 25/26 soybean production forecast slightly to 20.9 mmt. AgRural pegs Brazilian soybean plantings at 61%, up from 47% the previous week. In their top producing state, Mato Grosso, soybean plantings have reached 86%, while slightly below their historical average it does put them on pace to begin harvesting their crop by mid to late January. On Friday we had speculative traders net buyers of between 2-4k contracts across all 3 legs of the soybean complex.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05-$.08 higher across the 3 classes. Spreads were mixed. Inside trade for Dec-25 CGO as it closed just above its 100 day MA. Dec-25 KC closed above Friday’s high and its 100 day MA. Export inspections at 11 mil. bu. were below expectations and below the 15 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 445 mil. bu. are up 19% from YA, vs. the USDA at up 9%. SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in Nov-25 to reach 4.7 mmt while IKAR expects they will reach between 5.2-5.4 mmt. IKAR also reports Russia’s export price for wheat ended last week at $232/mt, up $1.50 from the previous week. Egypt has reportedly bought 500k mt of wheat recently for Dec/Jan shipment. 200k mt was sourced from Russia, with the balance split between Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine.
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