Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.01 ½ lower closing at session lows. Spreads weakened into the close with today being day 1 of the Goldman roll. Dec-25 slipped to a new low for the week with longer term support at its 100 day MA at $4.19 ½. dry areas in Brazil have received rains this week however a few pockets in S. Mato Grosso and N. MGDS that have been shortchanged. Additional rains are forecast and much needed. Forecasts for Argentina remain favorable with a good mix of rain and sunshine over next week to 10 days.Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reports their corn exports in Oct-25 at 6.5 mmt, up 1.5% YOY. The BAGE reports Argentine corn plantings advanced only 1% last week to 36% as farmers shift their focus to soybean plantings. It will likely require US corn yields to slip close to 180 bpa in next Friday’s USDA production and WASDE updates for US 25/26 stocks to drop below 2 bil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were moderately higher across the complex today. Beans were up $.06-$.10 closing near session highs, meal was $2-$4 higher while bean oil was up 30-35 points. Spreads were steady to higher across the complex. Inside trade for Jan-26 beans as it continues to hold above $11 bu. after carving out a 16 month high this week. Inside trade for Dec-25 meal with resistance at $325 and support at $300. Resistance for Dec-25 oil is at its 50 MA at 50.34. Spot board crush margins improved $.03 ½ to $1.42 ½ bu. with bean oil PV dipping back below 44%. The soy complex drew support as China restored soybean import licenses for 3 US firms paving the way for future US imports. FOB offers at the US Gulf are slightly above offers from Brazil even before factoring in 10% tariff differential. By Feb-26 that differential swells to $.80 bu. however that’s below the $1.00+ it reached earlier this week. China and other countries have been actively buying Brazilian soybeans this week. Wire services report the EPA cleared out the remaining backlog of SRE requests dating back to the Biden Administration. The EPA granted full exemptions to 2 refineries, partial (50%) to 12 refineries while denying 2 others. It’s still not clear if the EPA be able to reallocate the exempted biofuel volume onto larger refineries, or Big Oil. With bean oil under $.50 lbs. Chinese custom data from Oct-26 showed their bean imports at 9.482 mmt, while down 26% from Sept. they were up 17% from Oct-24 and a record high for the month. China has seen record bean imports every month since May. Imports to date in 2025 have reached 95.7 mmt, up 6.4% YOY. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reports their bean exports in Oct-25 at 6.7 mmt were up 43% from YA, also a record high. Record exports have been scored every month since July. The BAGE reports Argentine beans plantings have reached 4.4%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05-$.08 lower in CGO and KC to $.01 higher in MIAX. Both KC and CGO closed near their lows for the week. While MIAX held up much better, it was still not able to hold early strength. Dec-25 MIAX futures are back to a $.30 premium over Dec-25 CGO after collapsing to $.01 ½ early this week. The BAGE reports Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3% to 11.5%. While they held their wheat production forecast unchanged at 22 mmt, vs. USDA at 19.5 mmt, they did suggest that could change as they continue to assess potential damage from freezing temperatures earlier in the month. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index fell 1.6% in Oct-25 led by a 5.3% drop in sugar, 3.4% drop in dairy, 2% drop in meat prices and a 1% drop in grains.
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