Ag Market View for Oct 13.22
Most in the trade was looking for lower soybean futures. Post USDA supply and demand report traders began to question USDA estimate of US soybean exports and carryout. Some are beginning to focus on talk of record 2023 South America supplies. 2021/22 World Sep-Aug soybean exports were 139.6 mmt vs 147.1 ly. US 58.4 vs 61.2 ly. Brazil 79.3 vs 80.0 ly. World Sep-Aug soymeal trade was 60.7 mmt vs 58.7 ly. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600 to 1,400 mt vs 777 last week. There is talk that end of La Nina could improve South America weather and even US 2023 Midwest weather. SX support 13.50. Resistance 14.00.
CZ rallied from 6.84 to 6.99. Some feel that lower US corn exports than USDA estimate and higher carryout could offer resistance to futures. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 300-900 mt vs 227 last week. There is talk that end of La Nina could improve South America weather and even US 2023 Midwest weather. Weekly US ethanol production was up 5 pct from last week and down 9 pct from last year. Stocks were up 1 pct from last week and up 10 pct vs last year. Some feel lower demand could keep CZ from trading above 7.00. Support is near 6.40.
WZ rallied from 8.63 to 9.06. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-500 mt vs 229 last week. US equites sold off on the higher inflation news. Market became oversold saw buying in equites and selling of US Dollar. This may have helped wheat futures bounce off session lows. Matif wheat futures traded lower for most of the session until the newswires reported that Russia would not agree to an extension of the export corridor. Headlines and politics are going to dictate this market for months to come. Russian exports are slowing due to logistics and bad weather in the Black Sea, plus increasing difficulties with freight and insurance.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.