Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Most in the trade was looking for lower soybean futures. Post USDA supply and demand report traders began to question USDA estimate of US soybean exports and carryout. Some are beginning to focus on talk of record 2023 South America supplies. 2021/22 World Sep-Aug soybean exports were 139.6 mmt vs 147.1 ly. US 58.4 vs 61.2 ly. Brazil 79.3 vs 80.0 ly. World Sep-Aug soymeal trade was 60.7 mmt vs 58.7 ly. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600 to 1,400 mt vs 777 last week. There is talk that end of La Nina could improve South America weather and even US 2023 Midwest weather. SX support 13.50. Resistance 14.00.
CORN
CZ rallied from 6.84 to 6.99. Some feel that lower US corn exports than USDA estimate and higher carryout could offer resistance to futures. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 300-900 mt vs 227 last week. There is talk that end of La Nina could improve South America weather and even US 2023 Midwest weather. Weekly US ethanol production was up 5 pct from last week and down 9 pct from last year. Stocks were up 1 pct from last week and up 10 pct vs last year. Some feel lower demand could keep CZ from trading above 7.00. Support is near 6.40.
WHEAT
WZ rallied from 8.63 to 9.06. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-500 mt vs 229 last week. US equites sold off on the higher inflation news. Market became oversold saw buying in equites and selling of US Dollar. This may have helped wheat futures bounce off session lows. Matif wheat futures traded lower for most of the session until the newswires reported that Russia would not agree to an extension of the export corridor. Headlines and politics are going to dictate this market for months to come. Russian exports are slowing due to logistics and bad weather in the Black Sea, plus increasing difficulties with freight and insurance.
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