Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.04 lower while spreads were little changed. Dec-26 held within yesterday’s range as prices continue to consolidate around $4.50. Speculative traders were net buyers of 6k contracts yesterday, while open interest jumped another 9k contracts. To date US exports are down 34% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of down only 4%. The BAGE reports Argentine corn plantings have reached 47%, well ahead of the average pace in the low 30’s. Bulls hope US corn will be on China’s wish list however the path of least resistance remains lower until demand improves and/or a more threatening SA forecast.
SOYBEANS
Prices across the complex were mixed with beans steady to $.02 higher, meal was off $3-$5 while oil was up 25-50 points. Spreads weakened across the complex. Overhead resistance for Jan-27 beans is at its 100-day MA at $12.47 ½. Dec-26 meal fell to a fresh 2-month low. Yesterday, Dec-26 oil rejected trade below its June-26 low and the 38% retracement support at 64.65. The USDA announced separate flash sales of 165.2 mt (6 mil. bu.) and 132k mt (4.8 mil.) both to unknown buyers. Crush margins plunged $.18 to $2.17 bu., an 8-month low, while bean oil PV up to 50.4%. The BAGE reports Argentine plantings are underway with just over 2% of the crop seeded. EIA data showed combined biodiesel and RD production fell 15% in Aug-26 to 447 mil. gallons, a larger drop than D4 RIN generation data suggested. Bean oil usage fell 17% from the previous month to 1.40 bil. lbs. With 1 month of data left to round out the 2025/26 MY, YTD usage has reached 13.415 bil. lbs. To reach the USDA forecast of 14.8 bil. lbs. usage in Sept-26 will need to reach 1.385 bil. lbs. To reach the 2026/27 MY usage at 17.80 bil. lbs. monthly usage will need to average 1.483 bil. lbs.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.01 lower while down $.17-$.21 for the week across the 3 classes. Despite this week’s export sales being a MY high, YTD commitments are off 29% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of down 17%. While at least 2 vessels have traveled safely through the Kerch Strait another vessel was sunk in the Black Sea off the coast of Bulgaria. Prospects of reopening of the Black Sea have pressured prices the past 2 months, meanwhile the war rages on. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest has reached 7%. SovEcon reports Russian winter crop plantings have reached 14.9 mil. HA, down 1% from YA. They expect final acres to be down a few percentage points from YA.
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