Ag Market View for Oct 4th
Soybean ended lower on lack of new US soybean export sales to China, increase US soybean supply and continued US harvest. Rains in central Brazil and south Argentina and forecast of rains in north Brazil also offered resistance. Slightly better weekly US soybean exports failed to offer support. Higher energy prices and palmoil prices offered support to soyoil futures versus soymeal. Soymeal traded down to lowest levels since October, 2020. Weekly US soybean exports were near 31 mil bu vs 17 last week and 76 last year. Season to date exports are near 67 mil bu vs 260 last year. Most in the trade could see final US soybean exports closer to 2,050 vs USDA 2,090. Trade est US soybean crop rated 58 pct G/E or unchanged from last week. Trade also estimates that 32 pct of the crop is harvested vs 16 last week.
Corn futures ended slightly lower. Higher energy prices offered support. Talk of lower demand and uncertainty of US and China trade relations offered resistance. Ongoing US harvest also limits new speculative buying despite a lack of new farmer selling and talk yields might be a little lower than expected. Trade still waiting for news about US response to US and China traded agreement. Corn end users should consider adding to 2022 cash coverage. Some feel US/World corn supply could get tighter and could push prices higher. Most doubt USDA will make big changes to US 2021/22 corn October supply and demand. Weekly US corn exports were near 31 mil bu vs 25 last week and 35 last year. Season to date exports are near 81 mil bu vs 146 last year. Some in the trade could see final US corn exports closer to 2,600 vs USDA 2,475. Trade est US corn crop rated 59 pct G/E or unchanged from last week. Trade also estimates that 29 pct of the crop is harvested vs 18 last week. CZ remains in a slight uptrend since the Sep 10 low. CZ support is near 5.26. Key resistance 5.48.
Wheat trade was mixed. WZ gained I cent and was near 7.56. KWZ dropped 5 cents and ended near 7.54. MWZ ended down 1 cent and near 9.27. Lower US Dollar offered support. Concern about final Russia wheat exports vs USDA guess and lower EU milling wheat supply also offered support. There is chances of showers in US HRW are next week. Russia winter wheat areas could also see some showers next week. This could offer resistance to KC wheat futures. Weekly US wheat exports were near 22 mil bu vs 14 last week and 25 last year. Season to date exports are near 320 mil bu vs 365 last year. Higher World wheat prices is supportive. Some feel tight global wheat supplies and concern about US south plains 2022 weather could allow WZ to test 8.00.
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