Ag Market View for Oct 5.22
Soybean futures ended lower. China remains on holiday. Malaysian palmoil prices continue to trade higher. Stocks and metals traded lower on talk US Central Bank will raise interest rates 75 basis points in November. Feelings that USDA could increase US 2022 crop and reduce exports on Oct 12 offers strong overhead resistance. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 500- 1,200 mt vs 1,003 last week. USDA est World soybean trade near 167 mmt vs 153 ly. China imports are est at 97 mmt vs 90 ly. Some could see imports below 90 mmt. Brazil exports are 89 mmt vs 80 ly with crop of 149 vs 126 ly. US 56 mmt vs 58 ly. Some could see exports closer to 51.
Corn futures ended marginally higher. Talk of lower US crop and slow farmer selling offers support. Low demand for US corn exports offers resistance. There is more speculation today that Russia will not extend to Ukraine export corridor. Reduced Ukraine exports also offers support. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 350-800 mt vs 512 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 4 pct from last week but down 9 pct from last year. Stocks were down 4 pct from last week but up 9 pct from last year. USDA estimates US 2022 Corn crop near 13,944 mil bu. Some feel final crop could be lower. One crop Group estimated the crop at 14,056 mil bu down from 14,168 in Sep. USDA Currently estimates total Corn demand near 14,275 mil bu with some closer To 14,000. USDA will have to estimate new US 2022/23 corn carryout trying to balance lower supply with even lower demand. Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet. N Brazil is dry.
WZ is near 9.02. KWZ is near 9.91. Dry US and Argentina weather offers support. US 2023 HRW crop needs a rain. Next weeks weather maps reduced chance for rain across KS, OK and W TX. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-450 mt vs 279 last week. Futures rallied on talk that Russia may not extend the Ukraine export corridor. Fact USDA dropped US 2022 wheat crop shocked the market and offered support. Headline risk today with Putin signing decree with text of new Russian constitution after incorporating new regions and ordered to transfer Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to Russian control. UN to send reps to Moscow next week to discuss grain corridor. US supply chain logistic issues (lower river basis levels) and barge freight challenges sure to press interior logistics of rail and trucks as fall harvest picks up.
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