Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed $.04-$.05 higher with spreads weakening. Dec-24 traded above its 100 day MA for the first time since June while settling right at it. at $4.28 ¾. Next resistance is at $4.40 ¾. The USDA announced the sale of 195k mt (7.7 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer. Crop ratings slipped 1% to 64% G/E in line with expectations. IMO updated ratings would suggest an average US yield of 183.1 bpa, below the Sept-24 USDA estimate of 183.6. 75% of the crop is mature vs. 79% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 70%. Harvest advanced 7% to 21% below expectations of 23%. This year’s harvest matches the YA pace and above the 5-year Ave. of 18%. At least 2 poultry processing plants in NC and GA have been shuttered due to effects of Hurricane Helene. EU corn imports thru Sept. 29th have reached 5.17 mmt, up 13% from YA. Corn usage in the production of ethanol in August reached 473 mil. bu., while down 11 mil. from July (July was revised up by just over 10 mil. bu.) it was well above the 442 mil. used in Aug-2023. Total usage for the 23/24 MY reached 5.471 bil. 6 mil. bu. above the current USDA forecast of 5.465 bil. Feed residual will still need to be revised higher by the USDA to mee the 1.760 bil. bu. ending stocks, just a bit less than believed yesterday.
SOYBEANS
Prices finished mixed also in choppy, volatile trade. Beans were steady to $.02 higher as spreads weakened, meal was up $1-$6 as spreads surge, while oil closed 40-60 lower. Resistance for Nov-24 beans rests just above yesterday’s high at the 100 day MA, currently $10.76 ¾. Dec-24 bean oil continues to chop around its 100 day MA at 43.07. Next resistance is LW’s high at 44.86 with support at its 50 day MA at 40.96. Dec-24 meal has surged to a fresh 3 month high. Next resistance is the June-24 high just above $360. Spot board crush margins added another nickel closing at $1.84 ¾ bu. a 7 week high. Outside of some lingering rains in the ECB the entire Midwest is trending warmer and dryer than normal into mid-October. US harvest should move along swiftly the next couple of weeks. There does appear to be better prospects for rain across dryer areas of both Brazil and Argentina in week 2 of the outlook (Week 2 precip. map on the right), however confidence these rains develop seem to go back and forth. The USDA announced the sale of 120k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) of beans to an unknown buyer. Crop ratings held steady at 64% G/E in line with expectations. IMO conditions still suggest an average yield of 53.5 bpa, vs. the USDA Sept. est. of 53.2 bpa. 81% of the crop is dropping leaves vs. 82% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 73%. Harvest has reached 26% vs. 20% YA and 5-year Ave. of 18%. EU soybean imports as of Sept. 29th have reached 2.99 mmt, up 1.4% from YA. Meal imports have reached 4.29 mmt, up 10.6% from YA. US crushers processed 168 mil. bu. of soybean in Aug-24, down 13% from July and just below the 169 mil. bu. from Aug-23. Crush was in line with expectations and cumulative crush for the 23/24 MY to 2.288 bil. bu., 7 mil. below the current USDA est. Soybean oil stocks at 1.629 bil. lbs. was also in line with expectations below the 2.009 bil. lbs. from July and 1.772 bil. lbs. from Aug-23.
WHEAT
Prices finished $.13-$.16 higher across all 3 classes. Dec-24 Chicago traded above $6.00 for the first time in 2 ½ months before backing off to close just below. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $6.07. Dec-24 KC also traded above $6.00 however held just below its September high at $6.04 ¼. US winter wheat plantings at 39% vs 36% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 38%. Jordan once again passed on all offers in their 120k mt wheat tender. A Thai importer is seeking 180k mt of feed grade wheat in a snap tender. No sale announced yet. EU soft wheat exports as of Sept. 29th have reached 6.14 mmt, down 26% from YA. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports they have planted 1.82 mil. HA of winter grains which represents 35% of their intended acres. Winter wheat accounts for nearly 1.7 mil. HA of that total despite the ongoing drought. IKAR reports Russian export prices ended last week at $222/mt, up $5 from the previous week. With the USDA increasing their winter wheat harvested acres by just over 500k yesterday, the percentage of acres harvest jumped to an 8 year high at 78.2%, very near its longer term average.
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