Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower today in volatile 2 sided trade. Spreads were slightly weaker. Dec-25 broke thru 50 day MA support however still held above this month’s low at $4.10 ½. As US/China trade relations took a turn for the worse, so did prices across the Ag. space after Pres. Trump threatened massive new tariffs on Chinese imports. Only time will tell if this is just “hard ball posturing” ahead of a potential meeting, or if we go back to massive tariffs that would effectively shut down trade between the world’s 2 largest economies. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday est. the Argentine crop was 26% planted. Earlier in the week the Rosario Grain Exchange placed plantings at 28%. We had speculative traders selling roughly 8k contracts yesterday extending their short position out to 105k contracts. This week’s drought monitor showed US corn acres in drought increasing 3% to 31%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex today with beans down $.13-$.16, meal was down $1-$2 while oil closed nearly a full $.01 lower. Spreads across the complex are steady to lower. Despite the price drop, Nov-25 beans held above the $10 level and this month’s low at $9.93 ¾. Dec-25 oil plunged to a new low for the week and back below $.50 lb. however also holding above this month’s low at 49.20. Bean oil also pressured by lower energy prices and a .7% decline in palm oil prices overnight. Dec-25 meal fell to a new low for the week before recovering. Apparently angered by China imposing export controls over rare earth metals earlier this week, Pres. Trump took to social media to voice his displeasure and rattle off potential retaliatory moves. He stated China’s action have become increasingly “hostile” and that there is no way China should be allowed to hold the world “captive.” Trump said he has not spoken to Pres. Xi while also suggesting they may no longer meet later this month in S. Korea, adding there is “no reason to do so.” Trump went on to threaten China with a “massive increase in tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the US.” Prior to Trump’s social media posts, prices were lower as China has shown no interest in US soybeans. Upon returning from their Golden Week Holiday late this week, Chinese crushers secured about a half dozen cargoes of soybeans from Brazil for December shipment. This continues to narrow the window where US soybeans may fill some of their import needs ahead of SA harvest in early 2026. This week’s drought monitor showed US bean acres in drought increasing 2% to 39%. Malaysian palm oil production in Sept-25 fell nearly 1% to 1.84 mmt, however was slightly above expectations. End of months stocks grew 7.2% to 2.35 mmt, well above expectations of 2.15 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were $.05 to $.09 lower across the 3 classes today. New contract lows for the Dec-25 contracts also across the 3 classes. Despite the weakness spreads in CGO and KC were steady to slightly higher. Dec-25 CGO broke thru the $5 level with next support is $4.94 ½, the low in Aug-25 on the weekly chart. This was the first close below $5.00 on the weekly chart in over 5 years. Dec-25 KC held support above its Sept low at $4.79 ¾ on the weekly chart. SovEcon again raised their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast, up another 600k mt to 87.8 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 85 mmt. Low prices will likely cause Russian farmers to shift away from wheat planting this fall, with recent acreage est. down 5-6% from the recently harvested crop. Russia’s Ag. Ministry also slashed their wheat export tax 35% to 318.6 roubles/mt for the period ending Oct. 21st, this in an effort to stimulate export demand. Tunisia reportedly bought 100k mt of soft wheat at $254.60/mt CF for Nov/Dec shipment.
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