Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.02-$.03 closing near session lows in 2 sided trade. Spreads also weakened. After failing to trade above its 100 day MA resistance at $4.24 ½, Dec-24 turned around falling to new lows for the month likely due to hedge pressure. Longer term support is at the 50 day MA at $4.07. Dry and warmer than normal conditions will persist across the nation’s midsection for at least another week to 10 days enabling harvest to move along quickly. Today’s updated drought monitor showed drought readings surge across many key growing area’s. Exports at 48 mil. bu. were in line with expectations bringing YTD commitments to 695 mil. bu., up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up less than 1%. Noted buyers last week were unknown – 15 mil., Mexico – 13 mil., Columbia – 10 mil. and Japan – 8 mil. Strategies Grain raised their EU corn production forecast slightly to 58.1 mmt, still slightly below the USDA est. of 59 mmt. US corn acre’s in drought surged 22% last week to 49%, the highest reading in 50 weeks. Iran reportedly passed on their tenders for 120k mt of feed corn and barley.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower with beans down $.04-$.06, meal was $3-$5 lower while oil was up 60-70. Nov-24 beans continue to build support just above its 50 day MA at $10.10 ¼. Dec-24 meal violated support at its 50 day MA trading down to a 6 week low. Dec-24 oil surged back above its 100 day MA with next resistance at the Sept high at 45.29. The CPC lowered the odds for La Nina conditions to develop by the end of the year from 71% to 60%. They went on the suggest that if La Nina does develop it will be both “weak” and “short lived”. Not much change for SA forecast with conditions trending wetter over the next few weeks enabling Brazilian soybean plantings to pick-up roughly 2 weeks later than normal. Spot board crush margins improved $.02 to $1.62 bu. with bean oil PV jumping to 41% matching its highest level since April-24. Exports at 47 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however a MY low. YTD commitments at 740 mil. are up 4% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Shipments are up 5%. China/unknown combined to buy only 10 mil. bu. bringing combined commitments to 499 mil. bu. below the 535 mil. from YA and well below the 811 mil. bu. from 2022. Soybean meal sales at 166k tons were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments are up 7% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean oil sales at 4k tons were in line with expectations. US bean acre’s in drought surged 17% last week to 43%, the highest since Jan-24.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.05 higher across all 3 classes today as markets injected a bit more War Premium. MGEX Dec-24 matched yesterday’s 4 month high at $6.55. Resistance for Dec-24 Chicago is at last week’s high at $6.17 ¼. Exports at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations bringing YTD sales to 443 mil. up 19% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Ukraine’s Deputy PM claims Russia is purposely targeting their port infrastructure with missile strikes to reduce their grain exports and eliminate competition on world markets. The minister went on to state ports have been targeted 60 times in the past 3 months. Russian Govt. officials have lowered their 2024 grain production forecast 2 mmt to 130 mmt, below the 148 mmt from 2023 and 158 mmt from 2022. Their wheat production est. is at 83 mmt, which matches the USDA est. from Sept. Russia’s Ag. Ministry is reportedly scheduled to meet with major grain exporters tomorrow to discuss their grain export quota mechanism.
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