Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 lower, unable to hold the bounce overnight. Spreads weakened, also not able to hold early strength. Dec-25 held support at the October low at $4.10 ½. Early strength was capped right at the 50 day MA at $4.15. Meanwhile US harvest rolls. Rains this week are expected to be lite while favoring the WCB. The ECB to remain mostly dry until next weekend. US corn harvest has reached 45% thru this weekend, equaling YA and ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 42%. APK Inform raised Ukraine’s grain harvest .3 mmt to 59.1 mmt, however lowered their corn production est. .5 mmt to 30.3 mmt. Their corn export forecast is at 24.5 mmt. This compares to the USDA production forecast at 32 mmt and export at 25.5.
SOYBEANS
The soy complex was quietly mixed as beans were up $.01-$.02 ½, meal was down $1 while oil was 60-65 higher. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were steady to firm. Inside trade for Nov-25 beans as it has held above Friday’s low of $10.02 ½. Next support for Dec-25 meal is the October low at $270.10. Inside trade for Dec-25 oil with next resistance at the 50 day MA at 51.83. US Treasury Sec. Bessent this AM suggested Pres. Trump’s meeting with Pres. Xi later this month is on after substantial talks with Chinese trade officials this weekend while also maintaining the US threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1st “does not have to happen.” Spot board crush margins recovered $.04 to $1.52 bu. with bean oil PV recovering to 48%. Chinese soybean imports from all sources in Sept-25 at 12.869 mmt, were up 4.8% from Aug-25 and up 13% from Sept-24. This was a record high for the month and 2nd highest ever, coming in below the May-25 total of 13.9 mmt. YTD imports have reached 86.2 mmt, up 5.3% from YA. US bean harvest likely reached 58% as of Sunday, just above the 5-year Ave. of 57%, however below YA pace of 64%. Brazilian soybean plantings advanced 5% this week to 14% complete, well above the 8% pace from YA. Plantings in Mato Grosso, their top producing state, have reached 21% vs. the 5-year Ave. of 17%. Conab is out tomorrow with updated production estimates in Brazil. US NOPA crush is on Wednesday.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.02 lower across the 3 classes. Early weakness saw new contract lows for Dec-25 in both CGO and KC. Dec-25 CGO matched the weekly low from Aug-25. Dec-25 KC traded to a 5 year low on the spot weekly, undercutting the Sept-25 low by a quarter cent. IKAR reported Russia’s wheat export prices ended last week at $229/mt, down $3 from the previous week. They also forecast exports in Oct-25 will exceed 4.5 mmt. APK Inform raised Ukraine’s wheat production forecast .5 mmt to 22.4 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 23 mmt. Saudi Arabia indicates they have purchased 500k mt of wheat from Saudi investors that have grain trading operations in foreign countries. No terms were disclosed other than shipment is expected before April-26.
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