Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads also firmed. Dec-25 plowed thru its 50 day MA at $4.15 ½ with next resistance at the 100 day at $4.21 ¾. The trade expects production to range from 309-316 mil. gallons vs. 315 mil. the previous week and 306 mil. gallons YA. We had speculative traders buying just over 5k contracts yesterday cutting their net short position to roughly 125k contracts. Taiwan reportedly bought 65k mt of US corn at $1.73 over Mch-26 futures for Dec/Jan shipment. South Korea bought 131k mt of corn just below $235/mt CF from either US or SA origin. For now Dec-25 corn likely to remain rangebound between $4.05-$4.35. The best chance for a near term rally would be if US production is well below the current USDA forecast of 16.814 bil. bu. Without a drought this winter in SA it’s hard to envision US demand growing much from the current record USDA forecast at just over 16 bil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices held on to slight gains into today’s close with beans steady to $.01 higher, meal was up $1-$2 while oil was 25 points higher. Bean and oil spreads were steady to lower while meal spreads firmed. Nov-25 beans continue to hold support above $10 however were not able to push above this week’s high. Outside day up for Dec-25 meal with next resistance at the Oct-25 high at $282. The gap higher open in Dec-25 oil overnight failed to hold. Resistance just above today’s high is at the October high at 51.60. I’m not sure how much leverage the Trump Admin. thought they’d get from playing the UCO card. US imports of UCO from China have already plummeted this year with tariffs on Chinese imports and given that under the Big Beautiful Bill, tax credits only apply toward biofuels produced from domestically sourced feedstocks. Jan-Aug UCO import volume at only 291k tons is down 65% YOY. Last year we imported a record 1.27 mmt of UCO from China valued at $1.1 bil. while China imported just over 22 mmt of US soybeans valued at $12 bil. Bottom line, don’t expect China to suddenly turn to the US for bean imports if we threaten to no longer import their UCO, something we’ve already nearly eliminated. In July-25 (last monthly data available) soybean oil accounted for 37% of the feedstock used in the production of biofuels while UCO had slipped to only 14%, down from a peak of 25% in April-23. NOPA crush at 197.86 mil. bu. was a record high for the month, and well above the expected range. Usage was also up 4.2% from the 189.8 mil. processed in Aug-25, despite 1 less day. Bean oil stocks at 1.243 bil. lbs. were down slightly from the 1.245 bil. at the end of Aug-25 however slightly above expectations.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.03 lower today, failing to build on yesterday’s key reversal trade in KC futures. Support rests at yesterday’s contract lows across all 3 classes. Dec-25 MIAX futures have held support at its contract low at $5.50 the previous 3 sessions with today’s low ¼ cent above it. A group of S. Korean flour mills bought 50k mt of US wheat in a snap tender. France’s AgriMer left their 25/26 wheat export forecast outside of the EU steady at 7.85 mmt, however raised their forecast for exports within the EU 4.5% to 7.04 mmt. Russian announced they have resumed exports to Indonesia this month after a 9 month pause. Indonesia renewed quarantine certificates in August to allow the shipment of 52k mt this month. Russia sold 1.3 mmt of wheat to Indonesia in 2024, vs. only 123k tons earlier this year. Still lacking a spark to ignite a meaningful short covering rally.
Charts provided by QST.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
