Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.04-$.06 today as spreads also weakened. Despite today’s pullback prices were moderately higher for the week. Dec-24 is back below its 100 day MA with next support at the 50 day MA at $4.09 ½. The USDA announced the sale of 136k mt (5.4 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Total announced sales this week have reached 59 mil. bu. Expect another large weekly export sales report next week. Turkey’s President has reportedly presented ideas to revive the UN Black Sea Grain deal to Russia. Pres. Putin has acknowledged receiving the proposal, however has not yet considered the idea. The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained their Argentine production forecast at 51-52 mmt, in line with the USDA at 51 mmt. The BAGE reports corn plantings have reached 29%, up from 24% LW. Still expect nearby corn to remain in a $3.90 – $4.30 range thru the US election and likely the Nov 8th USDA production and WASDE reports. COF in US feedlots as of Oct. 1st was 100% of YA, in line with expectations. Placements in Sept-24 at 98% of YA was above expectations of 96%, while marketings at 102% of YA was in line with expectations.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.06-$.09, meal was $2-$5 lower, while oil was down 5-15. Spreads weakened all around. After peaking at $.02 ¾ yesterday the Nov-24/Jan-25 been spread crashed back out to $.12 this AM. This is likely an indication farmer selling has filled the demand pipeline, at least temporarily. Dec-24 meal has fallen to a fresh 2 month low with next support not until its contract low at $298.50. An inside trading session for Dec-24 bean oil as it stabilized just above $.44 lb. Spot board crush margins fell another $.03 ½ to $1.70 ¾ bu. while bean oil PV reached a fresh 7 month high a 41.9%. A healthy rain event moved thru the NC Midwest the past 24 hours bringing widespread .50”-1.0” totals with some 1.5”-2.5” accumulations from EC Iowa into NW IL. These rains could slow the final 20% of corn harvest with little impact on soybeans as harvest is mostly completed. Recent showers in Argentina and Brazil along with forecasts for addition precipitation in early Nov are keeping crop prospects high. The USDA announced the sale of 116k mt (4.25 mil. bu.) to China. While US exports have been strong as of late, YTD commitments are up 8% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%, weather in SA over the next 3-4 months along with the US election will determine if the current USDA export forecast of 1.850 bil. bu. can be reached. China indicated overnight their grain harvest would top 700 mmt for the first time this year.
WHEAT
Prices were $.12-$.15 lower across all 3 classes today as the Dec-24 contracts all experienced an outside trade down. Dec-24 Chicago was the only one to hold support above its Oct-24 low. Eastern Ukraine into S. Russia will see scattered rains over the next 10 days however maintaining a dryer than normal trend. Without a more widespread rain event over the next few weeks much of the winter crops will enter dormancy poorly developed. The Rosario Grain Exchange held its Argentine production forecast at 19.3 mmt above the USDA est. of 18 mmt. They also expect exports to reach 13.3 mmt, which if realized would be the 2nd highest ever and well above the USDA forecast of 11.5 mmt. Russia is reportedly offering wheat for international tenders just below the $240 price floor mentioned by the Ag. Ministry and Ag. Exporting unions last week. This price floor was intended to rise to $245/mt in Nov-24 and $250/mt in Dec-24. Russia did raise their wheat export tax 7% to 2,273 rouble per MT for the period ending Nov. 5th.
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