Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.05-$.08 higher however spreads weakened as farmer selling picks up. Dec-25 futures jumped out to a 6 week high however stalled just below the September high at $4.31 ¼. Next resistance is $4.36 which is the 50% retracement from the Feb-25 high to the Aug-25 low. Today’s higher trade was fueled by constructive US/Chinese trade negotiations this weekend in Malaysia. Export inspections at 47 mil. bu. were a marketing year low and below the 57 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 415 mil. are still up 58% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 14 mil. while Colombia and S. Korea both bought 7 mil. bu. A Bloomberg survey expects US corn harvest has reached 73% as of Sunday, above the 5-year Ave. of 71% however below the 79% pace from YA. AgRural estimates Brazil’s first corn crop plantings at 55% are just above the 53% pace from YA. Still no USDA or CFTC data as the partial Fed. Govt. shutdown has reached nearly 4 full weeks.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.20-$.25, meal was $4-$6 higher while oil was 50-55 better. Nov-25 beans gapped higher overnight while holding just below the June high at $10.74 ¼. Dec-25 meal shot up to a 2 month high while closing higher for a 10th consecutive session. Resistance is at the August high just above $300 ton. Dec-25 oil is stuck between support at $.50 lb. and the 50 day MA at 51.34. Beans spreads spiked while product spreads were steady to easier. Spot board crush margins plunged $.11 to $1.47 ½ bu. with bean oil PV setting back to 46%. While specifics are lacking, Bessent suggests that China would be a substantial buyer of US soybeans for many years while the threat of significantly higher tariffs and restrictions on rare earth material would be paused. There is still no indication China is inquiring for US soybeans, however the market remains hopeful the US will fill some of the estimated 300-325 mil. bu. China needs in the Dec/Jan timeframe. This window won’t be long as China is expected to switch back to Brazilian soybeans with the arrival of their new crop supplies by Feb-26. AgRural estimates Brazilian soybean plantings have reached 36% as of late last week, largely in line with the YA pace. The Bloomberg survey has US bean harvest reaching 84% as of Sunday, above the 5-year Ave. of 82% however below the record pace of 88% YA. Export inspections at 39 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 4 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 247 mil. bu. down 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. As of Friday’s close MM’s are estimated to be short 99k contracts of meal while long 6k bean oil and 22k soybeans.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03-$.05 higher in MIAX to $.12-$.14 higher in CGO and KC as speculative traders scrambled to cover short positions. Dec-25 CGO gapped above its 50 day MA with next resistance at the September high of $5.35 ¾. Same story with Dec-25 KC with resistance at $5.24. Export inspections at 9.5 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD inspections at 421 mil. bu. up 20% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. IKAR is reporting Russia’s wheat export price closed LW at $230.50/mt, down $.50 from the previous week. They also upped their Russian export forecast for Oct-25 .5 mmt to 5.5 mmt. SovEcon however held their forecast unchanged at 5.1 mmt. The Bloomberg survey estimated US winter wheat plantings have reached 85%, up from 76% LW and just above the 80% from YA. Winter wheat crop ratings are expected at 50% G/E, well above the initial readings from YA at 38%.
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