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Ag Market View for October 29.24

CORN

Prices were $.02-$.03 higher today as spreads also firmed.  Dec-24 held support at yesterday’s low and the 50 day MA at $4.10 while managing to exactly match yesterday’s range.  Harvest advanced 16% to 81% complete vs. 68% from YA and the 5-year Ave. of 64%.  Still the most advanced pace to harvest since 2012.  Colorado is the only state where harvest lags its 5-year Ave. with 58% of the crop having been gathered, down 1% from the average.   Prices may also be drawing support from California Gov. Newsome pushing their states Air Resource Board to approve the sale of E-15.  California remains the only state where the sale of E-15 isn’t allowed.  EU corn imports as of Oct. 25th have reached 6.4 mmt, up 8% from YA.  Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show weekly ethanol production in a range between 1,071 – 1,096 tbd pace, vs. 1,081 tbd pace the previous week and if realized would be above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast.  We remain in a big crop, strong demand environment.

QST Corn futures chart 10.29.24

SOYBEANS

Prices were mixed today with beans down $.04-$.09 closing near session lows, meal was $1-$3 lower while bean oil was up 10-15.  Bean and meal spreads were weaker while oil spreads were steady.  Jan-25 beans made a new 2 month low however held support above its  contracts low at $9.73 ½.  Same story for Dec-24 meal as it held support above its contract low at $298.50.  An inside day for Dec-24 oil with today’s low holding at its 100 day MA at 42.60.  Spot board crush margins improved $.03 to $1.69 ½ per bu. with bean oil PV improving to 41.5%.  Central Brazil will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to 10 days keeping production prospects high.  Net drying is expected this week in Southern Brazil, favorable for wheat harvest and summer plantings.  Better opportunities for rain next week.  Mostly dry this week for key growing areas of Argentina with showers returning this weekend into next week.  In the US 2 rain events are forecast to bring a wide band of 2-3” rainfall from E. OK northeast thru the Great Lakes region over the next week.  Lighter totals for the northern plains with little to no rain for the far WCB and SE.  The moisture will help ease expanding drought readings and give interior river systems a boost.  Harvest advanced 8% to 89% complete, vs. 82% YA and 5-year Ave. of 78%.  Harvest is the fastest in 7 years.  Every reporting state is above its respective 5-year Ave. pace.  For now the price path of least resistance is lower as long as SA weather remains non-threatening and Chinese demand remains so-so at best.  EU soybean imports have reached 3.78 mmt, steady with YA.  Meal imports at 5.7 mmt are up 11%. 

QST Soybean futures chart 10.29.24

WHEAT

The shining star in the Ag. space today with all 3 classes $.10-$.13 higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses. All 3 classes also traded above yesterday’s high.  Today’s strength was largely attributed to US winter wheat crop ratings showing only 38% of the crop in G/E condition.  This was well below expectations and the 47% G/E YA.  23% of the crop is rated poor or VP, vs. 18% YA.  Clearly the expansion of drought conditions in the southern plains has led to poor early crop development.  80% of the crop is planted, slightly behind YA and the 5-year Ave.  Jordan reported bought 60k mt of wheat in their recent tender at $269/mt CF for shipment in early January.  They had been seeking up to 120k mt.  Tunisia didn’t make a wheat purchase today in the 75k mt durum tender.  Algeria is reportedly seeking 50k mt of soft milling wheat in a tender that closes Thursday.  EU soft wheat exports for 24/25 MY as of Oct. 25th have reached only 7.26 mmt, down 33% from YA. 

QST wheat futures chart 10.29.24

All charts provided by QST.

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