Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Dec-24 closed near session highs very close to its 100 day MA at $4.26 ¼. Outside of lite showers in the Great Lakes region, much of the nation’s corn and soybean belt will be dry this week enabling harvest to accelerate. Export inspections at 37 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD inspections at 168 mil. are up 22% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up less than 1%. Noted buyers last week were Mexico – 17 mil. and Japan – 9 mil. In addition, the USDA announced the sale of 155k mt (6 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn crop plantings have reached 37%. Plantings in WC state of Mato Grosso are at their slowest pace in 9 years. SovEcon lowered their Ukrainian production forecast 1.1 mmt to 23.5 mmt, well below the USDA forecast in Sept-24 at 27.2 mmt. Chinese data shows their hog slaughter in Aug-24 at 24.42 mil. head was down 8% from YA. Jan-24 thru Aug-24 slaughter at 209.1 mil. head was down 2.6% from YA. Their overall sow herd at the end of Aug-24 at 40.4 mil. head is down 4.8% from YA. Last week Money managers bought 63k contracts of corn cutting their short position to 68k contracts, a 14 month low.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with beans $.03-$.04 lower, meal was down $5-$7 while oil was up 60-65. Spreads were slightly weaker. Nov-24 beans traded to a 2 month low while remaining stuck between resistance at its 100 day MA at $10.70 ¼ and support at the 50 day MA at $10.11. Dec-24 oil held support above its 100 day MA just above $.43 lb. Near term resistance is at LW’s high at 45.29. Support for Dec-24 meal is at its 50 day MA at $319.90. Spot board crush margins slipped $.04 to $1.69 bu. while bean oil PV surged to 40.8%, a 6 week high. Conditions across Argentina are expected to improve with several chances for rain over key growing areas the next few weeks. Central areas of Brazil are expected to see better prospects for rain this week, however much more is needed to recharge soil moisture after months of drought and much above normal temperatures. Export inspections at 53 mil. bu. were above expectations. YTD inspections at 124 mil. are down 1% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. China took 26 mil. while Mexico, Egypt, Vietnam and Germany all taking 4-6 mil. The USDA also announced the sale of 172.5k mt (6.3 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer. AgRural estimates Brazil’s bean plantings have reached 4.5% vs. 8% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 5.5%. MM’s were huge buyers across the soybean complex LW purchasing 40k beans, 35k oil and 45k meal. MM’s remain short soybeans however this position has slipped to only 35k contracts while they are now long 16k oil and 103k meal. The MM combined long position in the soybean complex jumped out the 84k contracts, the largest in 10 months.
WHEAT
Prices were $.03-$.06 higher across all 3 classes rejected lower trade from overnight. Despite the strength spreads in Chicago widened to new lows. The rebound in Dec-24 MGEX was capped at its 100 day MA. Some areas of E. Ukraine and S. Russia could see scattered rains this week however overall relief is expected to be minimal. Export inspections at 13 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD inspections at 316 mil. are up 35% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Saudi Arabia completed their recent tender for 295k mt of wheat having bought 307k mt at an average price of $266/mt CF. IKAR estimates Russia’s export price for wheat ended last week at $223/mt, up $1 from the previous week. SovEcon reports that Russia exported 870k mt of grain LW, well below the 1.3 mmt shipped the previous week. Of the 870k mt total, 800k mt was wheat, down from 1.29 mmt LW. Last week MM’s bought 3.5k contracts of Chicago wheat, 4.7k in KC and 1.9K in MGEX. Their combined short position in wheat has hit a 4 month low at 52k contracts.
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