Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Lack of new US soybean sales to China, weak energy and equity markets and concern over increase US farmer selling weighed on prices near key resistance. Some also feel US shutdown, higher taxes and higher food and energy prices could also slow US economic growth. Weekly US soybean crop ratings remain unchanged from last week but below last year. Some still think US soybean yield could drop to 48-50 versus USDA 50.6. 16 pct of the US soybean crop is harvested and some report US farmer could be a good seller of extra bushels. Trade estimates US Sep 1 soybean stocks near 174 mil bu vs 525 last year. Range of guesses are from 145 to 202
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Weak financial markets and a turn lower in energy prices triggered long liquidation near key resistance. Trade may be disappointed in fact today there were no new US corn to China. USDA did announce 150 mt of US corn to Mexico. There appears to be little new news to attract new buying near session highs. Higher US Dollar and lower commodity prices may also be liquidating new longs in corn. Weekly US corn crop ratings remain unchanged from last week but below last year. This continues to raise strong debate over final US corn yield. Some still think US corn yield could drop to 172-174 versus USDA 176.3.18 pct of the US corn crop is harvested and some report US farmer is still a reluctant seller of extra bushels. Trade estimates US Sep 1 corn stocks near 1,155 mil bu vs 1,919 last year. Range of guesses are from 998 to 1,152
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Higher US Dollar, rains across US south plains and slow demand for US wheat exports weighed on prices. WZ ended near 7.06. Range was 7.06-7.26. KWZ ended near 7.08. Range 7.03-7.25. MWZ ended near 9.07. Range was 9.03-9.24. USDA NASS estimated US winter wheat planting near 34 pct done versus 32 average. KS is 27, OK 28, OH is 5, WA 67. Rains are forecasted later this week. Brazil banned GMO wheat imports. This could reduce 6-7 mmt they import from Argentina. Matif new crop wheat futures making new highs on concern acres and production could be down due to seed problems and higher input cost including fertilizer. Trade estimates US Sep 1 wheat stocks near 1,852 mil bu vs 2,158 last year. Range of guesses are from 1,775 to 1,998.
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