Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower. SX tested initial support near 14.50. New range could be 14.00-15.00. Soybean futures are lower on fears of lower China demand for US soybeans and talk USDA could increase US 2022 crop in October. Biden administration is considering new sanctions against China. Fact US soybean export prices are higher than Brazil and Argentina offers resistance. USDA will release on Thursday 4 weeks of export sales data. This will include some old crop but mostly new crop. On August 11, new crop corn sales were near a record 626 mil bu. Some could see 4 weeks of sales near 92 mil bu mostly new. Trade still worried about final exports below USDA 2,085 mil bu due to lower Brazil and Argentina prices and if there is a normal SA 2023 crop.
CORN
Corn futures dropped on talk of increase farmer selling as harvest moves along. US 2 week Midwest weather forecast calls for normal to below rains and above normal temps. This should help dry the corn crop and offer good harvest weather. Corn had been supported by lower USDA September corn crop and yield. Fact US corn export prices are higher than Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina offers resistance. USDA will release on Thursday 4 weeks of export sales data. This will include some old crop but mostly new crop. On August 11, new crop corn sales were near 364 mil. Some could see 4 weeks of sales near 63 mil bu mostly new. Trade still worried about final exports below USDA 2,275 mil bu due to lower Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina prices and if there is a normal SA 2023 crop.
WHEAT
Wheat futures rallied on short covering. Some feel ongoing concern about US 2023 HRW weather and low beginning stocks from last year may be offering seasonal support. KWZ-CZ found support near 2.00 and is near 2.66. Some could see the spread trade closer to 3.50. 2022 high was 6.00. USDA will release on Thursday 4 weeks of export sales data. On August 11, wheat export commit was near 324 mil bu vs 331 last year . Some could see 4 weeks of sales near 92 mil bu. Wheat price direction up to Global demand, Black Sea exports and dry US HRW weather.
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