Written Commentary
CORN
A late surge enabled prices to close nearly $.03 higher in 2 sided trade. Spreads were little changed. Support for Dec-25 is at the 50 day MA at $4.14. First resistance is at LW’s high of $4.24 ¾. Exports at 21 mil. bu. were well below expectations. With 46 mil. bu. carried over from the 24/25 MY, commitments for the 25/26 MY have reached 890 mil. up 69% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 2%. Commitments represent 31% of the USDA forecast above the historical Ave. of 24%. Mexico was the only noted buyer at 10 mil. bu. I look for the USDA’s to raise their 24/25 export forecast 35 mil. bu. to 2.855 bil. No change to the 25/26 forecast of 2.875 bil. Conab raised their 24/25 Brazilian production forecast 2.7 mmt to 139.7 mmt, well above the Aug-25 USDA est. of 132 mmt. Conab is forecasting a record yield of 3.621 mt per HA, vs. the USDA forecast of 5.92 mt per HA. Most forecasts are between 137-140 mmt with outlier at 150 mmt. Late yesterday the Rosario Grain Exchange raised their 24/25 Argentine production forecast 1.5 mmt to 50 mmt matching the USDA est. They also indicate their new crop 25/26 production could reach a record 61 mmt as they shift acres away from soybeans to corn. The USDA forecast for 25/26 is only 53 mmt. US corn acres in drought rose 4% LW to 13%, still below the 18% from YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.07-$.08, meal was $2-$3 higher while oil was up another 60 points. Spreads were also firmer across the complex. Nov-25 jumped back above its 100 day MA while holding just below this week’s high at $10.36. Oct-25 oil for now has rejected trade below $.50 lb. Oct meal looks to be stuck between its 50 and 100 day MA’s of $281-$290 respectively. Board crush margins rose another $.02 ½ to $1.67 bu. with bean oil PV inching up to 47.3%. Hopes the US/China have been laying the groundwork for a Trump visit to China this fall to discuss trade matters helped fuel today’s higher trade. Expanded drought conditions across key growing areas also contributed to today’s strength. Bean sales at 20 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. With 28 mil. bu. carried over from the 24/25 MY, commitments for 25/26 have reached 344 mil. bu. down 34% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 9%. Still no sales to China. Sales to unknown were nearly 16 mil. bu. I look for the USDA to raise 24/25 exports 10 mil. bu. to 1.885 bil. while lowering new crop 25/26 30 mil. to 1.675 bil. Soybean meal sales at 357k tons were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are up 13% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 11.5%. Bean oil saw net cancellations of old crop of 14 mil lbs. reducing commitments to 2.417 bil., lbs., likely to come up shy of the USDA forecast of 2.550 bil. Conab raised their Brazilian 24/25 soybean production forecast nearly 2 mmt to 171.5 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 169 mmt. They also raised their export forecast .4 mmt to 106.65 mmt, well above the USDA at 102.1 mmt. Conab’s yield forecast at 3.621 mt per HA just above the USDA est. of 3.57. The RGE is forecasting 2025/26 Argentine bean acres at 16.4 mil. HA, very close to the USDA est. of 16.5, both down about 7% from YA. US bean acres in drought rose 6% LW to 22%, the highest since April.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03 – $.06 higher with CGO futures leading the recovery. Spreads were steady to slightly higher. Early trade saw Dec-25 CGO scratch out a new contract low while just missing out on a key reversal day. Exports at 11 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 468 mil. bu. are up 19% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 6%. Commitments represent 53% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 49%. By class commitments vs. the USDA forecast are: HRW up 106% vs. USDA up 38%, SRW up 3% in line with the USDA, HRS down 9.5% vs. down 4%, and white down 15% vs. down 14%. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast from 7.8 mmt to 7.54 mmt. Winter wheat area in drought rose 4% to 38%, still below the 55% from YA.
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