Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed $.02-$.03 ½ higher with spreads also firming. Most contracts closed at or near session highs. Support for Dec-24 is at its 50 day MA of $4.04 ½ with resistance at its 100 day MA at $4.31 ¼. The USDA announced the sale of 180k mt (7 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. US ethanol production slumped to 994 tbd last week, down from 1,049 tbd the previous week and down 1.5% from YA. Production was the lowest in 20 weeks. There was 100 mil. bu. of corn used, or 14.3 mil. bu. per day, below the 14.9 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.450 bil. Implied gas demand jumped 5% to 9.205 mbd and was up 7% YOY. The Bloomberg survey for next Monday’s USDA report expects Sept. 1 stocks 1.846 bil. bu., up 34 mil. bu. from the Sept. WASDE report and well above the 1.360 bil. from 22/23. Brazil’s corn exports are expected to reach 6.68 mmt in Sept-24, down from 8.76 mmt YA. The Rosario G/E forecasts Argentine 24/25 corn production at 52 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 51 mmt, both well above the BAGE forecast of only 47 mmt.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was higher with beans up $.11 closing near session highs, meal was up $2-$3 while oil was up 45–85. Beans and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed up a bit. Nov-24/Jan-25 matched its highest level trading out to $.19 ¼. Support for Nov-24 beans is at its 50 day MA at $10.12 with longer term resistance at its 100 day MA at $10.83. Oct-24 oil has reached a fresh 2 month high with resistance at 46.00. Oct-24 meal seems stuck between its 50 and 100 day MA’s from $314.50 to $331.40. Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall in NW FL tomorrow moving thru the SE and into southern regions of the ECB by this weekend. Heaviest rains between 5-10” likely for E. AL, much of GA and western Carolina’s. Localized areas could see over a foot of rain. 2-4” totals likely for TN, KY, SE MO along with southern IL, IN and OH. Little to no moisture for the US plains, WCB and NC Midwest over the next 7 days enabling harvest to accelerate. Better prospects for scattered rain in EC growing regions of Brazil by days 11-14. The Rosario G/E forecasts Argentina’s 24/25 soybean production at 52.6 mmt up 5% from 23/24 and above the USDA forecast of 51 mmt. The BAGE is forecasting production at 52 mmt. Brazil’s bean exports in Sept-24 are expected to reach 5.82 mmt, down from 6.4 mmt YA. US Sept. 1 soybean stocks are expected to rise to 347 mil. bu., up from 7 mil. bu. from the Sept. WASDE report and well above the 264 mil. from 22/23.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC up $.10-$.12 while MGEX $.05-$.06 better. Dec-24 Chicago and KC seem likely to remain range bound between $5.60-$6.00. $6.00-$6.40 for Dec-24 MGEX. The BAGE is forecasting Argentine 24/25 wheat production at 18.6 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 18 mmt. SovEcon is reporting 8.3 mil. HA of Russia’s winter crops have been planted, down 1 mil. HA from YA due to dry conditions in their Southern growing regions. This year’s planting pace is at an 11 year low. According to the Bloomberg survey very little change is expected to US wheat production in next Monday’s report. The USDA increased their WW production est. at the end of Sept. last year for the first time in 7 years and only 2 times in the past 14. Spring wheat production has risen 8 of the past 14 years led by last year’s 55 mil. bu. increase.
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