CORN
Prices were down $.02-$.03 today while spreads firmed a touch. Dec-24 traded to a fresh 2 month high however failed to challenge resistance at the July high of $4.26 ½. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $4.30 ½. Support rests at the 50 day MA at $4.04 ½. Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall along the FL panhandle this evening as a Category 3 storm, perhaps strengthening to a Cat. 4. Sustained winds in excess of 100+ mph is expected to cause significant property and some crop damage. Flooding rains of over a foot in some regions of the SE while 2-3” totals are expected to stretch into SE MO along with southern IL, IN and OH. Little to no moisture for the US plains, WCB and NC Midwest over the next 7 days enabling harvest to accelerate. The USDA announced the sale of 115k mt (4.5 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Exports at 21 mil. bu. were below expectations and bring YTD commitments to 580 mil. bu. still up 17% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up less than 1%. Current commitments represent 25% of the USDA forecast, below the historical average of 31%. The only noted buyers last week were Mexico and Columbia both taking just over 6 mil. bu. US corn area in drought fell 1% LW to 25%, still well below the 58% from YA. The Bloomberg survey for next Monday’s USDA report expects Sept. 1 stocks 1.846 bil. bu., up 34 mil. bu. from the Sept. WASDE report and well above the 1.360 bil. from 22/23.
SOYBEANS
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and MGEX down $.03-$.05 while KC was $.01-$.02 lower. Dec-24 Chicago failed to trade above the Sept-24 high at $5.98 ¾ before pulling back. No change to drought conditions in E. Ukraine and S. Russia into early October. SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat production forecast slightly to 81.8 mmt, widening the gap a touch with the USDA at 83 mmt. Russia has announced plans to expand grain export operations along the Baltic Sea with a long range goal of boosting grain exports by 50% by 2030. In turn, this would reduce their dependance on moving grain thru the Black Sea which has obviously become riskier in recent years since their invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s grain exports in 2023/24 totaled 62 mmt with 90% being channeled thru the Black Sea and only 2.4% thru Baltic Sea ports. US exports at 6 mil. bu. were below expectations and a MY low. YTD commitments at 411 mil. are up 22% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Commitments represent 50% of the USDA forecast, slightly below the historical average of 53%. US WW area in drought plunged 8% LW to 50%, still slightly above the 47% from YA.
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