Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02 ½ – $.04 higher closing near session highs. Spreads also firmed. Dec-25 held support above its 50 day MA at $4.14 ¼ setting up today’s recovery. First resistance is at LW’s high at $4.24 ¾ with secondary support at the 100 day MA at $4.29 ½. Export inspections at 57 mil. bu., were in line with expectations. Inspections for the 24/25 MY were 31.2 mil. with 25/26 inspections of 25.6 mil. New crop inspections are up 35% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 2%. The largest takers last week were Mexico – 20 mil., Japan – 11 mil. and Colombia – 9 mil. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st crop plantings have reached 12%, below the 15% from YA. APK-Inform raised their Ukraine corn production forecast 2.8 mmt to 30.3 mmt, below the USDA est. of 32 mmt. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyers of just over 19k contracts last week reducing their net short position to 91,487. Index funds were net buyer for a 3rd consecutive week adding 12,633 contracts to their holdings.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.06-$.07, meal was up $1-$2 while oil was 15-25 higher. Bean and meal spreads were mixed while oil spreads weakened. For the 2nd time in the last 3 trading sessions, Nov-25 beans rejected trade below its 50 day MA. Longer term resistance is at the August high of $10.62 ¾. Oct-25 oil dipped to a fresh 3 month low before recovering. Oct-25 meal has longer term resistance at the 100 day MA at $290.50. . Northern areas of the Midwest experienced a light frost over the weekend, however damage to this year’s corn and soybean crop crops is expected to be minimal. Temperatures are expected to rise to above normal readings across much of the Midwest over the next 24-48 hours. Precipitation over the next week is likely to be minimal in the SE half of the Midwest with only scattered amounts forecast for the NW half. Preliminary customs data from China showed they imported 12.3 mmt of soybean in Aug-25, up 5% from July and up 1.2% from Aug-24. The vast majority of these beans likely came from Brazil, however increases from both Argentina and Uruguay are likely as China continues to shun US beans over the continued trade conflict. China’s YTD imports thru August have reached 73.3 mmt up 4% YOY. Commitments from SA suppliers have likely covered their needs well into November. Despite the rapid sales pace for Brazilian soybeans, farmers are estimated to have only sold just over 20% of the estimated 2025/26 crop, below the 25% from YA and historical average of 89%. For old crop, farmers have sold 84% of their crop, below YA pace of 88% and 5-year Ave. of 89%. Export inspections at 17 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. Old crop inspections were 7.5 mil. while 25/26 inspections were 9.1 mil. New crop inspections are down 9% vs. YA, in line with the USDA forecast.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05-$.12 higher across the 3 classes. Spreads in CGO weakened while firming in KC. The Black Sea region is forecast to remain in a dryer than normal pattern for at least another 7-10 days. Rains are needed by fall to promote winter crop plantings and early development. Wire services are reporting EU officials are in Washington DC to meet with members of the Trump Administration to discuss coordinated sanctions against Russia for their continued attacks on Ukraine. APK-Inform raised their Ukraine wheat production forecast 2.2 mmt to 21.9 mmt, in line with the USDA at 22 mmt. SovEcon again increased their Russian production forecast .7 mmt to 86.1 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 83.5 mmt. MM’s were net sellers of a couple hundred contracts of CGO wheat, 6k KC and 1,700 contracts in MIAX futures. Export inspections at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and the weekly amount needed to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 260 mil. bu. are up 10% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 6%.
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