Ag Market View July 1st
Soybeans ended lower. Overnight trade started lower after XI speech to west not to intervene into China policy and intent to unify Taiwan. Soybean rallied on a dry US Midwest GFS weather forecast. US 2021 soybean acres are now est near 87.6. Acres were up in AR, IA, MO, NE and ND from March with acres down in IN, MN and OH. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 3.4 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,272 mil bu vs 1,647 last year. Goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. Range of analyst guesses for final exports is 2,285 to 2,305. This suggest US 2020/21 carryout between 95 and 140 vs 135. New crop sales increased 66 mil bu US summer weather outlook questions a yield near 51.0 This could suggest tighter US supply outlook and higher futures prices. One group est US 2021 crop at 4,335 mil bu and carryout near 85.
Corn futures ended mixed. CU was near 6.01. CZ ended near 5.89. CU range was 5.97 to 6.26. A dry GFS US 2 week weather outlook rallied prices. There was also some follow through buying from Wednesday gains. Some profit taking was noted after weekly US export sales were less than expected and going into long holiday weekend. Normally grain prices tend to trend lower after July 4 assuming normal summer weather. Weekly US corn export sales were only 600 thousand bushels. Total commit is near 2,738 mil bu vs 1,666 last year. Goal is 2,850 vs 1,778 last year. Range of analyst guesses for final exports is 2,900 to 3,025. This suggest US 2020/21 carryout between 850 and 1,007 vs 1,107. US 2021 corn acres are now est near 92.7. Acres were up in IL, IN, OH, and SD from March with acres down in WI, NE and IA. Analyst crop est range from 14,870 to 15,168 vs 14,990 and carryout 620 to 920 vs 1,357. US summer weather outlook questions a yield near 179.0 This could suggest tighter US supply outlook and higher futures prices. One group est US 2021 crop at 14,870 mil bu and carryout near 620.
Wheat futures ended lower. WU was down 14 cents and near 6.65. Range was 6.65 to 6.94. KWU was down 20 cents. Range was 6.37 to 6.69. MWU traded to near 8.36. Range was 8.35 to 8.59. Slow US wheat export pace and lower World prices continues to offer resistance to wheat futures. For the most part, US June 30 wheat numbers were a little negative. US all wheat acres were near 46.7 million vs 45.9 expected and 44.3 ly. Winter wheat acres were 33.0 vs 30.4 last year. US spring wheat acres were est near 11.6 vs 11.7 in March and 12.2 last year. Durum was 1.48 vs 1.68 last year. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 8 mil bu. Total commit is near 235 mil bu vs 263 last year. Goal is 900 vs 985 last year. Some now est US 2021 wheat crop near 1,735 mil bu vs 1,898. This could suggest US 2020/21 carryout near 555 vs 770.
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