Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is slightly higher in front of today’s nonfarm payroll data. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry but cool. Rain today in S KS and W TX.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.34. Dalian soybean and soymeal appear range bound, vegoil higher. SX held key support near 10.23 and rallied to close higher Wednesday. Overnight prices are slightly higher in reduced volume and drop in open interest. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 600-1,600 mt vs 1,372 last week. China continues to buy SA soybean vs US. StoneX est US soybean yield at 53.2 vs USDA 53.6. IL 62, IN 59, OH 56, IA 73, MN 52.5 and NE 60. US Midwest remains dry but cool. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report.
CORN
CZ is near 4.22 on decline in volume and open interest. Dalian corn futures near 2 week high. Corn futures are trying to balance talk of lower US exports versus drop in east Midwest final yields. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 900-2,200 mt vs 2,089 last week. Some feel slower sales and approaching US harvest could eventually weigh on futures. StoneX est US corn yield at 186.9 vs USDA 188.8. IL 212, IN 200, OH 192, IA 218, MN 203 and NE 197. Weekly US ethanol production was up 1.3 pct vs last year. Stocks were down 3.4 pct vs last year. Margins remain positive. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.23. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.09. MWZ is near 5.71. Matif wheat futures are lower versus last month when farmers were slow selling and squeeze on shorts. Russia 12.5 pro lower and below $300 for first time since July. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 350-700 mt vs 575 last week. Wheat futures are higher on lower volume and increase in open interest. Wheat appears to be following corn overnight despite talk of higher global supply and slow export buying. Next key input is 2026 south hemisphere crops and Russia exports and export price.
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