Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 16 cents and near 11.10. SMU is near 332.7. BOU is near 48.69. CU is down 4 cent and near 4.05. WU is down 8 cents and near 5.81. KWU is down 11 cents and near 5.87. MWU is down 6 cents and near 6.27. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
SU is near 11.10. SU is quickly testing 11.00 support. US 7 day forecast is favorable for US crop. Some look for slight improvement in US weekly crop ratings. Will China buy US soybeans? Dalian soybean. Palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. US soybean export commit is near 1,645 mil bu vs 1,927 ly. USDA export goal is 1,700 vs 1,992 ly. One group est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 385 mil bu vs USDA 350. This due to lower exports. They also est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 512 mil bu vs USDA 455. This due to higher crop which offset forecast of higher crush and exports than USDA.
CU is near 4.05. 7 day US Midwest forecast is favorable for the crop. Some look for slight improvement in US weekly crop rating. Dalian corn futures continue lower. One crop group lowered Brazil corn crop 3 mmt, Argentina 2 mmt and EU 2.5 mmt. US corn export commit is near 2,115 mil bu vs 1,536 ly. USDA export goal is 2.150 vs 1,661 ly. One group est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,012 mil bu vs USDA 2,022. This due to higher exports. They also est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 2,536 mil bu vs USDA 2,102. This due to higher crop.
WU is near 5.81. Russia forecast is hot and dry for spring crops. Russia continues to drop prices to compete for demand. Est for Russia crop are near 83 mmt vs 91.5 ly. EU crop could be down 6-7 mmt. Still, US, Canada and Australia crop estimates are increasing. US wheat export commit is near 253 mil bu vs 169 ly. USDA export goal is 800 vs 720 ly. One group est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 776 mil bu vs USDA 759. Higher US crop offset higher US exports.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
