Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is now down 3 cents and near 13.84 but overnight high was 14.01. SMU is near 427.5. BOU is near 64.32. CU is up 3 cents and near 5.00 but overnight high was 5.12. WU is up 8 cents and near 6.61 but overnight high was 6.84. KWU is up 5 cents and near 8.10. MWU is unchj and near 8.55. US stocks are lower. Fitch unexpectedly lowered US credit rating despite signs of strong economy. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $82. Gold is higher. Copper is lower.
Overnight, drone attacks on Ukraine Danube ports close to loadout and Odesa ports is helping corn and wheat futures rebound from Mondays lows. Brazil July corn exports were 4.3 mmt vs 4.1 ly. Brazil is focusing on increase corn exports especially to China. One group increased their estimate of Brazil 2nd corn crop to 108 mmt and total crop to 135 vs USDA 133 and 116 ly. Argentina farmer increased cash sales but total is only 18.1 mmt vs 34.5 ly. Rains continues in US central and west plains and S Midwest, E US Midwest and lake states are drier. Range of guess for final US corn yield is wide at 169-175. Huge difference in potential corn prices.
Wheat futures knee jerk reaction to Russia increase on attacks on Ukraine ports helped WU rally to 6.84 but has since backed off highs. WU has dropped from a high near 7.77 to yesterdays low of 6.43 on slow US export demand and lower Russia prices. Recent Russia price low was $240. This week though Algeria and Tunisia prices appear closer to $250. Egypt announced a tender. Rains continue in N EU.
Soybean futures rallied on Ukraine news. Some fear slowdown in Ukraine sunoil exports. EU rapeseed prices remain soft due to harvest pressure. Brazil July soybean exports were 9.9 mmt vs 7.5 ly. One group increased their estimate of Brazil soybean crop to 163 mmt vs USDA 156 and 130 ly. US June crush is est near 175.5 mil bu vs 189.3 in May and 174.1 ly. Soyoil stocks 2,207 mil lbs vs 2,386 in May and 2,316 ly. Brazil soybean basis is firm. Argentina soymeal export prices are now above US. Dalian soybean prices were lower, soymeal higher and soyoil was higher. Palmoil is also higher. Dalian soymeal is testing July highs.
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