ADMIS News
COCOA
July Cocoa is near unchanged this morning after reaching its highest level since April 4 yesterday. The market has drawn support over the past week from better than expected first-quarter grind stats for Europe, Asia, and North America and from a strong grind number for Ivory Coast in March. All eyes are on the developing mid-crop in Ivory Coast, which is expected to come into full swing in May. World Weather Service is saying that West Africa cocoa areas will get periodic rainfall supporting crop development over the next ten days, but warmer than normal temperatures could keep evaporation levels high. ICE certified stocks increased by 9,981 bags yesterday to 1.926 million, their highest since October 18. Stocks have increased in 11 out of the past 12 sessions.
COTTON
July Cotton is near unchanged this morning following a rally yesterday to its highest level since February 18. The market was buoyed yesterday by from comments by the US Treasury Secretary that he believes there will be a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. Trump also expressed optimism that deal could be reached that would “substantially” reduce tariffs. Some of that optimism has been undercut this morning after China’s Commerce Minister stated that there had been no trade talks with the US. The trade will be looking at this morning’s export sales report to see how they are holding up in the face of the tariff threats. Last week’s report showed net sales of 267,879 bales (old and new crops combined), which were up from 133,966 the previous week and the highest since March 6. Cumulative sales for the 2024/25 marketing year have reached 105% of the USDA forecast, which is right on the five-year average. World Weather Service says West Texas crop areas have a good chance of timely rainfall in the next week, which help improve planting conditions.
SUGAR
July Sugar backed off from its highs yesterday and is a bit lower this morning. The market lost some of its upside momentum yesterday when crude oil reversed lower. The S&P Global sugar conference in Geneva has produced some supportive comments overnight when a member of the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) told the conference that his nation is likely to export 600,000-700,000 metric tons of sugar in 2024/25 (ending September), which is short of the government quota of 1 million tons. This was not a total surprise, as industry groups have been lowering their production forecasts since early this year. The head of Ukraine’s sugar union told the conference today that her nation will see sugar beet sowing area fall 17% this year, due primarily to the dry conditions this winter. She expects Ukraine farmers to sow 210,000 hectares, down from her February estimate of 230,000 and below the first deputy farm minister’s March estimate of 250,000. This would put Ukrainian sugar production at 1.5 million tons year versus 1.8 million last year. Exports would fall to 180,500 tons versus 746,000 last year.
COFFEE
July Coffee has extended this week’s rally today and has traded to its highest level since March 26. The market has drawn support this week after Rabobank put the 2025/26 all coffee production at 62.8 million bags, down 6.4% from last year and down from a forecast by Safras & Mercado last week calling for 65-66 million. Arabica production is expected to come in around 38 million bags (down 13.6%) versus 40 million expected by Safras & Mercado, and robusta output is expected to come in around 24.7 million bags (+7.3%) versus Safras & Mercado’s 25-26 million. The CEO of the US National Coffee Association said yesterday that the exemptions from the Trump tariffs for coffee imports that is group had requested were “well received.” The US is the world’s largest consumer of coffee, and the tariff announcements earlier this month sparked a steep selloff. The arrival of timely rains in Brazilian coffee areas have eased the market’s worst fears about the upcoming crop, but the rain amounts have been light. Brazil’s robusta harvest has started in some areas. Coffee bean prices in Vietnam are down slightly from a week ago. ICE certified stocks increased 5,635 bags yesterday to 811,816, their highest since February 17.
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