Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. SU is down 6 cents and near 13.26. SX is down 7 cents and near 13.18. SMU is near 350.5. BOU is near 62.09. CU is up 3 cents and near 5.49. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.48. WU is up 3 cents and near 7.20. KWU is up 3 cents and near 6.97. MWU is up 6 cents and near 9.09.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher.
Light rains moving across IA and N MO. 5 dy rain IA,WI, N IL. 8-14 Midwest weather; warm, dry. Corn, soybean and wheat futures lacking new news, US corn, soybean wheat crop key unknown.
Trade est weekly new crop corn export sales 200-600 mt, soybeans 200 to 550, wheat 250-700. Pace of US corn, soybean and wheat export sales behind trade expectations esp demand bulls.
US fob soybean price $535 vs Brazil $546, Argentina $517. US meal $427, Argentina $380. China soybean import buying behind pace to reach annual estimate of 100 mmt. Hog herd size key.
Dalian corn lower, soybeans, soymal, palmoil , RSO and soyoil higher. China crush margins negative.
Delta virus spread raising concern about US/World food and fuel. US crude inventory increased.
US fob corn prices near $260, Argentina $226, Brazil $262, Ukraine $274. Argentina logistic problems. Brazil forecast corn exports near 17 mmt down 18 from last year and 17 from USDA estimate.
US fob HRW price $327, Baltic $270, Germany $275, Russia $270? French $275. Germany crop lower. Trade est Canada wheat crop near 20-25 mmt 7-12 mmt below USDA. Russia 75 mmt vs USDA 85.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 5,000 corn; and 2,000 soyoil, and bought 3,000 soybeans and 2,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 SRW Wheat; long 229,000 Corn; net long 88,000 Soybeans; net long 17,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 59,000 lota of soyoil.
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