Written Commentary
GOLD / SILVER
Both gold and silver are under full-scale liquidation pressure with the trade more concerned about Russian threats to sell gold bars for hard currency and rising US rates than from the uncertainty flowing from the Russian attack of major Ukrainian cities. The sale of Russian gold bars is reportedly limited to Russian citizens and is therefore unlikely to dramatically impact the world bullion market. Given the negative commodity vibe and spillover weakness from plummeting oil prices, today’s US PPI report is likely to have little if any impact on gold and silver prices.
PALLADIUM / PLATINUM
While the palladium market has managed to halt its slide this morning spillover pressure from growing global recession fears later this year, weakness in other precious metals and less Russian supply fears, leave the fundamental path of least resistance pointing downward. Even though the platinum market failed to rally as aggressively as palladium into the March highs, the market remains vulnerable to more declines ahead with a recent net spec and fund long and outside market pressure.
COPPER
With a fresh technical failure on the charts early today, spillover pressure from declines in industrial metals/materials (iron ore, and nickel) and residual concern of a slowdown in China from Covid the May copper contract is on a track to retest $4.4470. While the fear of a recession in China was temporarily moderated from positive Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures for February overnight, the trade thinks China is likely to show significant slowing ahead following activity restrictions on several major cities.
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