Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
CATTLE COMPLEX
Traders are bullish August through December 2025. Bull spreading has been indicating it. From February 2026 and out they are now starting to bear spread.
Another way more beef could enter the US would be importing more of it. Imports are already up close to 35% for the year on top of last year’s increase. However, raising tariffs on Brazil, New Zealand and Australia will only make it harder and more expensive. With the quarantine on Mexican feeder cattle and the fed cattle, it lowers beef inventory. Putting the Canadian tariff at 35% could halt exports of fed cattle and since the Canadian dollar has rallied since April, it also adds to the cost. Tariffs on imports to the are paid by the US buyer before products are allowed to enter the US.
PORK COMPLEX
With July Lean Hogs going off the board, and August Lean Hogs don’t expire for a month, spreaders often take advantage of the no spot time in July. The spread between August and September is wide and if spread traders go on past times, it is likely to get wider. It goes along with the expected increase of hogs with more expected as the year progresses.
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