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Big Cocoa Supply Short-Term

COCOA

While cocoa is dealing with lukewarm near-term demand, the market continues to have a bearish near-term supply outlook. With fresh evidence of record high global production, cocoa is likely to remain on the defensive. The turning point yesterday came when the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) released their quarterly supply update, which featured an increase in their 2020/21 global production forecast by 117,000 tonnes to a record high 5.141 million.

COFFEE

Since the start of the third quarter, coffee prices have twice climbed above the 200.00 level, an area the market had not reached since late in 2014. Given these comparable lofty price levels, it has not taken much in the way of bearish supply news to put some brakes on coffee’s upside momentum.

COTTON

December cotton broke out below a week-long consolidation yesterday, and also penetrated a steep uptrend channel support to turn the chart pattern more bearish. The selling pushed the market down to the lowest level since August 24. It appears that Hurricane Ida had little effect on cotton growing regions in Texas, and this realization may have been disappointing to the bulls.

SUGAR

Sugar prices came within 2 ticks of a new multi-year high yesterday before a lower close. A bullish supply outlook remains intact, however, so sugar prices should remain well supported on a near-term pullback. A rally in the Brazilian currency to a new 3 1/2 week high provided sugar with carryover support as that eases pressure on Center-South mills to produce sugar for export.

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