CURRENCY FUTURES
German gross domestic product was unchanged from the previous three months, but fell short of 0.1% growth predicted by economists.
The German consumer price inflation rate slowed to 6.2% year-on-year in July 2023, which is down from 6.4% in the previous month and in line with market expectations.
The economic sentiment indicator in the euro area declined for a third straight month to 94.5 in July 2023, which is the lowest reading since last October and below market estimates of 95.0.
England and Wales reported the most company insolvencies since 2009 in the second quarter.
The Bank of England will hold its next policy meeting on August 3, and an interest rate increase of 25 basis points is widely anticipated, taking policy rates to 5.25%.
The Bank of Japan announced “greater flexibility” in its monetary policy, surprising global financial markets. The BoJ said the 0.5% ceiling on yield movements was a reference point rather than a rigid limit.
In addition, the BoJ said there are significant downside risks to Japan’s economy and prices.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Much of yesterday’s late sell-off was due to reports that the Bank of Japan could be slightly less accommodative.
Stock index futures are higher today on ideas that central banks are nearing an end to their tightening cycle.
Personal income in June increased 0.3% when a gain of 0.4% was expected, and personal consumption expenditures were up 0.5% when up 0.4% was anticipated.
The second quarter employment cost index increased 1.0% when a gain of 1.1% was predicted.
Expect futures to firm now that Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s fed funds hike is out of the way.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Financial futures markets are predicting there is an 80% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its September 20 policy meeting, and there is a 20% probability of a 25 basis point increase.
Wednesday’s interest rate increase from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably the last one in this cycle.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.