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BQC Afternoon Comments April 1.2025

Geopolitics: According to wire service reports, the US Environmental Protection Agency will meet with a oil and biofuel coalition tomorrow in Washington. The group will defend their expectations to the EPA about the federal government raising mandates for biomass diesel blending. The current volume for biomass diesel mandates is 3.35 billion gallons and they’d like to raise that to 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallons. In comparison the corn-based ethanol mandate has been set at 15 billion gallons.  
Ag Fundamentals: Soybeans lead the way higher today as news of big oil and biofuel representatives are meeting with the EPA tomorrow to discuss mandates. Soybean oil was on another tear today, up over $2.50 to a 6-week high. Soybean oil only posted a 654 million pounds for usage this month which is the lowest number since 2020. Nearby May soybean prices bounced off the 20-day moving average following yesterday’s report, up nearly 20¢/bu today and  the next resistance is the 50-day MA at 1039. Estimates for tomorrow’s ethanol production are between 304-318 million gallons, similar to the previous week at 310 million. Corn acres in the southern states have had a great start to planting season, so the rains slowing them down this week should really just bring them back to the average pace. It will depend on how many fields flood and will need replanted. Winter wheat ratings are unchanged for Kansas, but felling in Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. The only states where conditions improved were Nebraska and Colorado.

2025 Tariff Timeline

February 4th:  US places 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports
February 4th:  25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico were delayed to March 4th.
March 4th: US places 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico imports
March 4th: Canada places 25% tariffs on $20 billion in US goods.
March 4th: US increases tariffs on China from 10% to 20%.
March 4th: China retaliates with 15% tariff on US food and agriculture products including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton
March 6th:  Trump exempted imports within the USMCA until April 2nd. including automobiles, auto parts, agriculture products, manufactured goods, textiles and apparel, and chemical products. 
March 10th: China places a 10% tariff on US sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy.
March 12th: US places a 25% tariff on all global imports of steel and aluminum.
March 12th: The EU announces it will impose counter tariffs on $28 billion worth of US goods, expected to take effect on April 13th.
March 26th: Trump says 25% tariffs on imported automobiles to begin on April 2nd/3rd with an exception to the USMCA agreement on automobiles.
April 2nd: ???

Calendar Spreads and Cost of Carry

Spread

Last

Chg

Full

% of FC

CK25/CN25

-6 1/2

– 1/2

-21   

31%

CN25/CU25

26 1/4

-2 1/4

 

 

SK25/SN25

-15   

-1 1/2

-27 1/4

55%

SN25/SQ25

1 1/2

– 3/4

 

 

SN25/SX25

10   

+1   

 

 

MWK25/MWN25

-16   

-1 1/4

-20 1/4

79%

WK25/WN25

-13 1/4

 +1/4

-15 3/4

84%

KWK25/KWN25

-11 1/2

+1 1/2

-16   

72%

Futures Settlements & Technicals

Symbol

Close

Chg

High

Low

Support

Resist

20-Day

50-Day

CK25

461 3/4

+4 1/2

465   

454   

455   

480   

461 1/4

482 1/2

CN25

468 1/4

+5   

470 3/4

461 1/4

461   

485   

468 1/2

487 1/2

SK25

1034 1/4

+19 1/2

1034 3/4

1010 1/2

1000   

1040   

1013 1/2

1039   

SN25

1049 1/4

+21   

1049 3/4

1024 1/2

1027 1/2

1053   

1027 1/4

1053   

SQ25

1047 3/4

+21 3/4

1048 1/2

1022 1/2

1024   

1049 1/2

1024   

1049 1/4

MWK25

594   

+2   

599 1/4

588 1/2

580   

599   

597 1/4

613 1/4

MWN25

610   

+3 1/4

614 1/4

604   

590   

612 1/2

612 1/2

626 1/4

WK25

540 1/2

+3 1/2

544   

533 1/4

535   

550   

551   

568 1/2

WN25

553 3/4

+3 1/4

557 1/2

547 1/4

540   

566 1/2

566 1/2

582 1/4

KWK25

565 1/4

+8 1/4

565 3/4

550 1/4

550   

575   

576   

588 1/2

KWN25

576 3/4

+6 3/4

577 1/2

563 1/2

560   

590   

576 3/4

600 1/4

SMK25

292.3

-0.40

294.3

290.9

290.00

300.00

299.30

304.90

BOK25

47.44

+2.55

47.49

44.75

43.90

45.95

42.94

44.72

Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.70 (expanded $1.05); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

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© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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