Written Commentary
Ag Fundamentals: Ethanol Production was higher despite most of the average estimates expecting a lower production number week-over-week. Ethanol stocks however, fell to a 15-week low at 25.5 million barrels. This is a typical time for ethanol stocks to start to loss weight as fuel demand increases into the spring/summer months. Brazilian soybeans are over 93% cut according to Conab’s most recent harvest estimate. They were only 83% harvested at this time last year. Seasonally dry conditions across the southern half of Brazil should allow for the remaining crop to come off at a relatively fast pace compared to average. South American weather is near perfect for both Brazil’s 2nd corn crop receiving rain and helping yield potential and Argentina’s harvesting areas staying dry to allow for consistent fieldwork. Here in the US, the weather is providing both drought relief and some planting delays, but planting progress is still ahead of schedule overall. Wheat traders have again focused their attention on the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The next couple weeks are extremely important if the US is truly planning to walk away from the negation tables if nothing is done soon (previously stated by Vice President JD Vance).
EIA Weekly Ethanol Production
(for week ending 4/18/2025)
Ethanol Production rose 21 thousand barrels per day compared the to prior week. This was also 26 thousand barrels per day greater than the average estimate.
EIA Weekly Ethanol Stocks
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EIA Weekly Implied Corn Usage
Calendar Spreads and Cost of Carry
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CK25/CN25 | -7 1/4 | +1/4 | -21 1/4 | 34% |
CN25/CU25 | 33 3/4 | +1/2 |
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SK25/SN25 | -10 | +1 | -27 1/4 | 37% |
SN25/SQ25 | 7 | +1 1/2 |
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SN25/SX25 | 22 3/4 | +3 1/4 |
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MWK25/MWN25 | -15 1/2 | – 3/4 | -20 1/4 | 77% |
WK25/WN25 | -15 1/4 | – 1/2 | -15 3/4 | 97% |
KWK25/KWN25 | -12 1/2 | – 1/4 | -15 3/4 | 79% |
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Futures Settlements & Technicals
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