Written Commentary
CLOSING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
The weight of a potential record crop in South America due to favorable weather and the lack of substantial new news to give life to the grain markets allow for further weakness on the board. Brazil planted in the dust and their bins have the potential to bust, as they say. The Dollar is also putting pressure on commodities as the index across from other major global currencies sustains strength. The Brazilian Real is on pace to settle at all-time lows against the dollar. Brazilian CIF basis levels are weakening as more sale are put on in the differed months. I would expect that to continue unless news of another Chinese stimulus surfaces.
The US Dollar Index Over the last 25 years. Three highs marked below are October 2022 @ 113.0, January 2002 @ 120.24, and February 1985 @ 16.41.
COT DISAGRREGATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS
Managed Money Sold across the board with the largest moves in Soyoil, soymeal, followed by corn, beans and wheat complex.
Calendar Spreads
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CH25/CK25 | -6 1/2 | +1/4 | -20 3/4 | 31% |
SF25/SH25 | -6 1/2 | 0 | -26 | 25% |
SH25/SK25 | -12 | +1/2 | -26 3/4 | 45% |
SF24/SN25 | -30 1/4 | +3/4 | -79 3/4 | 38% |
MWH25/MWK25 | -8 | – 1/2 | -20 1/4 | 40% |
WH25/WK25 | -8 1/2 | +1/2 | -16 | 53% |
KWH25/KWK25 | -7 1/4 | +1/2 | -15 3/4 | 46% |
Cost of Carry
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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