Written Commentary
CLOSING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
132K MT of US corn sold to unknown destinations and 132K MT of US soybeans sold to China this morning. Rumors of 500K MT to 1.2M MT of soybeans sold to China in the last week. Sino was the buyer and the total tonnage is still undetermined. The SF/SH5 spread has weakened back to over a 6 cent carry in today’s session. South American weather will continue to put pressure on board values on the back-end while the current uncertainty behind the up-front demand picture starts to reveal a clearer picture. If news comes out that China did purchase over 1M MT tons of beans, and vice versa this spread will see more volatility. Lower than normal volume traded today due to the US holiday this week. Expectations are we see similar trade tomorrow. I have included the schedule below.
Holiday Market Schedule
Christmas Holiday, 12/24-26th
Tues 12/24, Truncated day session, 12:05 pm CST close
Wed 12/25, Day and evening market closed
Thurs 12/26, Normal day session, 8:30 am CST open and 1:20pm close
New Years holiday, 12/31-1/2nd
Tues 12/31, Normal session
Wed 1/1, Day and evening market closed
Thurs 1/2, Normal day session, 8:30 am CST open and 1:20 pm CST close
The SF5/SH5 Jan-March Soybean Spread has spent the last 25 days firming up to reach into an inverse market late last week. Today the spread weaken to -6 cent carry.
Calendar Spreads
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CH25/CK25 | -5 3/4 | – 1/4 | -21 | 27% |
SF25/SH25 | -6 | -1 1/4 | -25 3/4 | 23% |
SH25/SK25 | -8 1/2 | +1/4 | -26 1/2 | 32% |
SF24/SN25 | -24 1/4 | – 3/4 | -78 3/4 | 31% |
MWH25/MWK25 | -8 | 0 | -20 1/2 | 39% |
WH25/WK25 | -10 1/2 | – 3/4 | -16 | 66% |
KWH25/KWK25 | -8 | – 1/4 | -16 | 50% |
Cost of Carry
No new data.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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