BQC Afternoon Comments Feb 13.2025

Geopolitics: Trump stated in his presser today, ” I will charge a reciprocal tariff. Meaning, whatever countries charge the United States of America we will charge them. No more, no less.” The EU, Japan, India, our neighboring counties to the north and south and others will have 90 days to negotiate before tariffs take effect. Not to mention the 25% blanket tariffs on Mexico and Canada that have about 16 more days before they could possibly be implemented. Cars, pharmaceuticals. chips, commodities, etc. it is all on the table. There may be some shifts in currencies as these new trade policies develop. The US dollar initially reacted higher to today’s announcement, but fell to nearly 107.00 by the end of the day. Trump to host the Prime Minister of India in the White House later today.     
Ag Fundamentals: Conab dropped their Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly today -310K MT from their previous estimate. They are pegging Brazil’s crop at 166.01 MMT vs. the USDA’s 169.0 MMT. Conab raised their corn and wheat production estimates, all seen in table below. Brooke Rollins was confirmed today as the new Secretary of Agriculture. Brooke was raised on a farm in Glen Rose, Texas, received her bachelors ag development from Texas A&M, and her doctorate in law from the University of Texas School of Law. Rollins comes into service at a time when mass deportations could add pressure to farm labor, an aviation flu outbreak, record high cattle prices and tariffs that may create headwinds for ag export demand. She will also work with RFK Jr. to set nutrition standards for schools and public health officials nationwide. Zoetis has just received approval from the USDA for their aviation flu vaccine. Hopefully that helps put a cap on the number of chickens the USDA orders to kill. USDA’s Phyllis Fong was escorted out of the office earlier this month, she was one of the lead investigators that approved the culling of millions of chickens. Fong had worked for the USDA for the last 22 years. Export sales this morning were looking poor for US beans. Rumor has it China bought 2 cargoes from Argentina and cancelled 1 from the US while Mexico bought 2cargoes from Brazil for LH February. Algeria bought around 300K MT of wheat today in an international tender at $263/MT and Saudi Arabia is looking to purchase up to 600K MT.