Written Commentary
Geopolitics: President Trump announced a 25% “secondary tariff” on any country that buys crude oil from Venezuela. China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, accounting for around half of all their exported oil. It is not clear how this secondary tariff will be collected or enforced. The closer we get to April 2nd the more traders are speculative of all blanket tariffs sticking. Seems the consensus is the final draft of tariffs will likely be more targeted and less blanket.
Ag Fundamentals: Pro Farmer released US planting projections on Friday. Pro Farmer is expecting +3.5% more corn acres at 93.75 million acres and a -2.4% decrease in soybean acres to 85 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be down while durum wheat may see a slight increase in plantings. Total wheat acres have been pegged at 45.5 million acres, down -1.5% from last year. Corn export inspections were in line with expectations at 58 million bushels, soybeans were above expectations at 30 million bushels, and wheat export inspections at 18 million bushels were also above estimates. The dollar is up off it’s lows from last week to trade above 104.0 on the index today. IKAR raised their Russian wheat production estimate from 81.0 to 82.5 MMT. Russia’s Ag ministry also lowered their wheat export tax -23% Grain traders will spend the rest of this week establishing a good grip to ride the market through next week’s grain stocks report on Monday 3/31 and tariff announcement by Wednesday 4/2.
The 14 Day Rain Forecast is showing wet weather ahead for the Ohio River Valley and central Minnesota Dry concerns in OK/KS/NE/SD/ND are still creeping into conversations.
CALENDAR SPREADS
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CK25/CN25 | -7 1/2 | – 1/4 | -21 | 36% |
CN25/CU25 | 27 | +1/4 |
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SK25/SN25 | -12 1/4 | – 1/2 | -27 | 45% |
SN25/SQ25 | 4 1/4 | – 1/2 |
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SN25/SX25 | 13 | – 3/4 |
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MWK25/MWN25 | -17 | -1 1/4 | -20 1/4 | 84% |
WK25/WN25 | -17 | – 3/4 | -16 | 106% |
KWK25/KWN25 | -15 | – 1/4 | -16 1/4 | 92% |
COST OF CARRY
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Futures Settlements & Technicals
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>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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