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BQC Afternoon Comments Mar 25.2025

Geopolitics: Russia and Ukraine agree to a maritime ceasefire which is the first step toward a broader ceasefire that was rejected by Russia following a head nod from Ukraine last week. Throughout these talks both sides have accused the other of attempting to prolong the war by ignoring the agreed terms. Today’s agreement will help ensure safe navigation of vessels in the Black Sea and enact a ban on attacking energy facilities. Ukraine’s defense minister said any movement of Russian military outside the eastern part of the Black sea would be considered a violation and a threat.  

 
Macroeconomics: Consumer confidence dropped -7.2 points to 92.9 on the CC index. This is the 4th straight month the readings have dropped lower. Additionally, the stort-term expectation index is the lowest reading in 12 years at 65.2. On the short-term expectation index, 80 points is the benchmark for a neutral recession argument. Crude oil hit a 100-day moving average wall today that is acting as resistance until better demand news emerges from both the US and China.  


Ag Fundamentals: Planting progress in the US southern states is slightly ahead of schedule for corn. Louisiana leads at over 60% planted, Texas planted 45% of their corn crop, Mississippi at 14% and Arkansas at 10% planted. Rains expected to hit parts of the Delta and mid south will slow planting progress in the coming days which may effect some intentions. Today the estimates are ranging from 93-95 million corn acres and 83-85 million soybean acres.  

May Crude Oil hit resistance at the 100-day moving average today. The 100-day MA is sitting at $69.66/barrel this afternoon.

Consumer Confidence down for the 4th straight month to 92.9 (-7.2 lower than February report).

The Conference Board’s Short-Term Expectations for income, business and jb markets fell 9.6 points to 65.2. This is the lowest reading in 12 years. 

CALENDAR SPREADS

Spread

Last

Chg

Full

% of FC

CK25/CN25

-7 1/2

0   

-21   

36%

CN25/CU25

23 1/4

-3 3/4

 

 

SK25/SN25

-13 3/4

-1 1/2

-26 3/4

51%

SN25/SQ25

3   

-1 1/4

 

 

SN25/SX25

9   

-4   

 

 

MWK25/MWN25

-16 1/2

 +1/2

-20 1/4

81%

WK25/WN25

-16 1/2

+1/2

-15 3/4

105%

KWK25/KWN25

-15 1/2

– 1/2

-16   

97%

COST OF CARRY

 
 

Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)

Futures Settlements & Technicals

Symbol

Close

Chg

High

Low

Support

Resist

20-Day

50-Day

CK25

457 3/4

-6 3/4

464 3/4

457   

457   

467   

465 1/4

485 3/4

CN25

465 1/4

-6 3/4

472   

464 3/4

465   

477   

472 1/4

490 1/2

SK25

1001 3/4

-5 1/2

1007 3/4

998 1/4

1000   

1027   

1015   

1042 1/2

SN25

1015 1/2

-4   

1020 1/2

1012   

1015   

1040   

1028 3/4

1056   

SQ25

1012 1/2

-2 3/4

1016 1/4

1008 1/2

1010   

1040   

1025 1/2

1052 1/4

MWK25

588 1/2

-3 3/4

595 1/4

587   

587   

600   

600   

614 1/4

MWN25

605   

-4 1/4

611 3/4

603 3/4

600   

615   

614 1/2

6 1/4

WK25

543 1/4

-5   

549 1/2

541   

540   

550   

556 1/2

570 3/4

WN25

559 3/4

-5 1/2

566 1/4

557 1/2

560   

574   

571 3/4

583 3/4

KWK25

569 1/4

-8 3/4

577   

567   

565   

585   

579   

588 3/4

KWN25

584 3/4

-8 1/4

591 3/4

583   

580   

600   

592 1/2

600 1/4

SMK25

295.1

-2.50

298.1

294.3

302.00

309.50

300.60

306.10

BOK25

42.30

+0.15

42.58

41.79

41.85

42.85

42.79

44.86

>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck?  Go HERE

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