Written Commentary
Ag Fundamentals:
Export inspections were mixed in this morning’s USDA inspection report. Corn was in line at 63M bushels, with Mexico (19M) and Japan (17M) the two largest buyers. Soybean inspections were toward the bottom of the estimate range at 12M bushels. The two largest soybean buyers were Mexico (3M) and China (2.5M). Wheat export inspections were below expectations at 11M bushels. November Soybeans found support today at both the 20 and 50-day moving averages, hitting a low of 1020’0 to close at 1022’2. Money managers did increase their soybean position over 7K contracts last week. Soybean planting progress is well above the 5-year pace, at 30% today vs. 23% avg. Corn is also slightly ahead of pace now over 40% planted across the US. Winter Wheat conditions improved from 49% good-excellent last week to 51% g/e this week. Comparison maps can be seen below.
November Soybeans hit a low of 1020’0 today and closed above a confirmed golden cross. The 20-day moving average crossed to close above the 50-day moving average for the first time since mid January.
Winter Wheat Good-Excellent Crop Ratings
Winter Wheat Good to Excellent ratings rose to 51% this week, compared to last week at 49%. South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Illinois had some of the best improvements while Arkansas, Indiana, and Idaho saw some of the worse declines week-over-week. The wheat belt from Texas north to South Dakota still has below average conditions.
Corn Planting Progress 40%
Corn Planting Progress is +1% ahead of the 5-year average pace. Today the USDA estimates 40% of US corn is in the ground. Illinois and Kentucky are the obvious laggers compared to the average pace, both -12% behind. The clear weather this week should allow for producers to catch up in the center of the Midwest. The US was able to advance corn harvest +16% over the last week.
Soybean Planting Progress: 30%
Soybean Planting Progress is +7% ahead of the 5-year average pace at 30%. Every state is ahead of pace expect Illinois. That should change this week following a the 5 days or more of clear weather. The US advanced soybean planting +12% in the last week.
Calender Spreads and Cost of Carry
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CN25/CU25 | 21 1/2 | -7 1/2 |
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CU25/CZ25 | -10 1/4 | 0 | -31 | 33% |
SN25/SQ25 | 5 1/4 | -1 1/2 |
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SQ25/SX25 | 18 | -2 3/4 |
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SN25/SX25 | 23 1/4 | -4 1/4 |
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MWN25/MWU25 | -11 1/4 | +1/4 | -20 3/4 | 54% |
WN25/WU25 | -14 1/2 | – 3/4 | -16 | 91% |
KWN25/KWU25 | -14 1/2 | – 1/4 | -16 | 91% |
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Futures Settlements & Technicals
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