Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
Yesterday, Reuters reported there are currently strikes in Argentina’s Rosario ports that have halted grain shipments. There is currently a CGT union strike happening today against government policies, expectations are that it only lasts 24 hours. It is reported they will be able to load vessels at the port with ag products, but will not be able to set sail. A couple soybean processing plant workers said they would also join the CQT strikes against government policies.
MACROECONOMICS:
Inflation is lower than expected for March with the rate now at 2.4%. April’s inflation rate was 2.8% and the market was expecting 2.5% on April’s CPI. The Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) month-over-month was reported at only 0.1% this morning (0.3% expected). Currently the Fed Watch site is anticipating no interest rate cut May, a -25 basis point cut in June and an additional 25 basis pint cut in July.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
No official date has been set, but 90 days from yesterday is Monday, July 8th. That is the Monday following a 3-day July 4th holiday weekend in the US. Markets returning from a long weekend tend to be more volatile than normal, we will be in the heart of this year’s growing season so weather will also come into play, and that following Friday July 11th is the July USDA WASDE report. Export sales this morning were mild compared to the past several weeks. Both corn and beans were reported close to the bottom of the estimate range. New crop corn exports were higher than expected at over 230K MT. Zero new crop soybean sales. There was a flash sale of 198K MT of soybeans to an unknown destination yesterday. The April WASDE will be out later this morning at 11:00 am CST.
April 10th USDA WASDE Report Estimates
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 107,300 | (100K)-400K | 107,700 | 0-200K |
Corn | 785,600 | 700K-1.3M | 236,200 | 0-150K |
Beans | 172,300 | 200K-700K | 0 | 0-50K |
Meal | 276,000 | 75K-450K | 11,200 | 0-20K |
Soyoil | 20,200 | 5K-32K | 0 | 0-5K |
Inflation Data this morning showed the rate easing to 2.4%. That is .01% better than the average estimate and 0.4% better than the previous month.
Export & World News
The USDA reported a soybean sale of 198K MT yesterday, to an unknown destination. Jordan purchased about 60K MT of animal feed barley and they are seeking up to 120K MT of animal feed barley and 120K MT of milling wheat in an international tender. Algeria is believed to have bought durum wheat, amount unknown.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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