Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
China hikes their tariff rate against all goods imported from the US from 84% to 125% in an announcement overnight. The Chinese Commerce Secretary made a statement saying that the US tariffs “have become a joke”. The new rate will go into effect tomorrow. Officials in Beijing said that American goods are no longer marketable in China. They are taking down American TV shows and movies off the air among other measures.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Yesterday’s USDA WASDE report was friendly for both corn and beans. Wheat reacted lower, but has rallied back today to cover the losses – Chicago May wheat up 12c this morning. The USDA finally raised their corn export number +100M bushels while only dropping feed and residual down -25M bushels. Total corn exports were pegged at 2.55 billion bushels which is 298M bushels more than last year and 888M bushels more than 2022/2023 marketing year. Over the next 14 days Brazil’s second corn crop will receive over 150% of normal rainfall. Despite all the trade war news between the US and China, soybeans have still found support and new crop November futures will open above $10 today.
The US Dollar Index (Monthly) below highlights the past 10 year. The Most recent drop is also the most sudden and we are nearly htiting the 100-day moving average on the monthly chart at 98.5.
Export & World News
South Korea bought up to 34K MT of rice mostly sourced from the US. Bangladesh also bought around 50K MT of rice in an international tender.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 14 ringgit overnight, now at 4214.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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