Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
China’s government issued two warnings to Chinese citizens traveling to the US on Wednesday. China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a travel advisory, urging travelers to “assess potential risks and exercise caution”. They also sent an advisory to students studying in the US to “evaluate risks”, mainly regarding student visas. I take this as another sign China is digging their heels in against the US during this trade war.
MACROECONOMICS:
President Trump took to Truth Social this morning to express his disappointment in Jerome Powell’s tone during yesterday’s interview at the Economic Club of Chicago. Trumps wants the Fed to cut rates, and Jerome needs to see how tariffs develop and how it all effects inflation before he feels comfortable cutting rates again. The Fed rate is 87% likely to be unchanged at the May 7th meeting.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Markets will close their normal day session today and will not reopen until Sunday evening. Livestock and lumber markets will reopen on Monday morning. Export sales this morning were neutral to bullish across the board.
WEATHER
The US drought monitor was basically unchanged this week. Southern Nebraska, Southern Iowa and western Kansas have experienced drier than normal weather. Plenty of rain coming to the southern Midwest and delta region this weekend and early next week.
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
|
Export & World News
Algeria bought about 570K MT of milling wheat which closed yesterday. Iran is looking to buy up to 120K MT of animal feed corn and 120K MT of animal feed barley.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 1 ringgit, at 4016.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
